{"id":8241,"date":"2009-04-15T10:28:16","date_gmt":"2009-04-15T07:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=8241"},"modified":"2009-04-15T10:28:16","modified_gmt":"2009-04-15T07:28:16","slug":"iki-secmenden-biri-erdogani-uzecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=8241","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ki se\u00e7menden biri Erdo\u011fan'\u0131 \u00fczecek!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Partisi, son genel se\u00e7imlerde oylar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 alan Erdo\u011fan i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn, se\u00e7menin yar\u0131s\u0131 ‘Erdo\u011fan ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz’ diyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ki se\u00e7menden biri Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n “ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz” oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. AKP’li se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 20’si bile “ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131yor. AKP y\u00fczde 50 oy alsayd\u0131, “T\u00fcrkiye gerilip, otoriter bir rejime do\u011fru giderdi” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00fczde 35 kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Y\u00fczde 18 de “Belki, olabilirdi” diyor<\/p>\n

A&G Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi’nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ankete g\u00f6re, se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 48.7’si, “Ba\u015fbakan Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz oldu\u011fu, muhaliflerini azarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131” ele\u015ftirilerine kat\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/p>\n

AKP’li se\u00e7menlerin bile y\u00fczde 20’si, Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ankete kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 35.7’si AKP’nin y\u00fczde 50 oya ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde otoriter rejimin gelece\u011fine inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

4-5 Nisan tarihleri aras\u0131nda 1876 ki\u015fiyle yap\u0131lan ankete g\u00f6re, halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 48.7’si Erdo\u011fan’\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz davranmakla ve s\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 olmakla ele\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fczde 38.5’i ise Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Muhalif partilere oy verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyenler, Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz buluyor.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131 en fazla CHP’liler ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, AKP’lilerin y\u00fczde 67.7’si Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatinde. Erkekler, kad\u0131nlardan daha fazla oranda Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz buluyor.<\/p>\n

Gen\u00e7ler ise Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha fazla oranda sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. E\u011fitim seviyesi y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, “Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n tav\u0131rlar\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz ve azarlay\u0131c\u0131” diyenlerin oran\u0131 ortalaman\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130lkokul mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 38.2’si Erdo\u011fan’\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 67.4’e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n sert ve azarlay\u0131c\u0131 tav\u0131rlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyenler, bu tav\u0131rlar\u0131n AKP’ye \u00e7ok oy kaybettirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz bulanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 46.2’si, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n AKP’ye \u00e7ok oy kaybettirdi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Otoriter rejim <\/strong><\/p>\n

Ankete kat\u0131lanlar, “‘Ba\u015fbakan son zamanlarda \u00e7ok otoriter olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Oyu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc iyi oldu yoksa, daha da sertle\u015fecek, T\u00fcrkiye gerilecek, otoriter bir rejime do\u011fru gidilecekti’ diyenler var. Sizce, AKP y\u00fczde 50 oy alsayd\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir sonu\u00e7 olur muydu? Bu fikre kat\u0131l\u0131yor musunuz?” sorusuna \u015fu yan\u0131tlar\u0131 verdi:<\/p>\n

Yan\u0131tlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 35.7’si “Evet kat\u0131l\u0131yorum, getirirdi” oldu. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 18.5’i, “Belki, olabilirdi” derken, y\u00fczde 34.1’i buna kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.
\n\u0130l Genel Meclisi se\u00e7iminde, oyunu AKP’ye verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyenlerin y\u00fczde 54.5’i “Hay\u0131r getirmezdi, kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum” dedi. CHP’ye oy verenlerin y\u00fczde 56.2’si, MHP’ye oy verenlerin y\u00fczde 51.4’\u00fc “Evet, getirirdi” yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi.
\nSP’ye oy verenlerin y\u00fczde 44.9’u da bu soruya “Hay\u0131r” dedi.\n<\/p>\n

Kad\u0131nlar\u0131n korkusu<\/strong><\/p>\n

AKP’nin y\u00fczde 50 oy almas\u0131 durumunda otoriter rejiminin gelece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi erkekler aras\u0131nda daha yayg\u0131n. Erkeklerin y\u00fczde 38.2’si, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 33.1’i otoriter rejimin gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

E\u011fitim seviyesi y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, otoriter rejimin gelece\u011fine inananlar\u0131n da oran\u0131 art\u0131yor. \u0130lkokul mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 29.1’i, ortaokul-lise mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 38.2’si, \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 47.7’si “y\u00fczde 50 oy oran\u0131n\u0131n otoriter rejim getirece\u011fini” d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

2009 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ankete kat\u0131lanlar, “Sizce, 2009’da bizi nas\u0131l bir T\u00fcrkiye bekliyor? Tahmininiz nedir?” sorusuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, karamsar bir tablo \u00e7izdi. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 27.7’si “Daha iyi”, y\u00fczde 31.7’si “Ayn\u0131” yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verirken, y\u00fczde 40.6’s\u0131 “Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc” yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Muhalefet partilerine oy verenler 2009 i\u00e7in daha umutsuz konu\u015furken, AKP’lilerin y\u00fczde 50.2’si daha iyi bir y\u0131l beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi. CHP’lilerin y\u00fczde 62.8’i, MHP’lilerin y\u00fczde 57.1’i, DTP’lilerin y\u00fczde 48.1’i 2009’un daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. AKP’ye oy verenlerin ise y\u00fczde 35.4’\u00fc “Ayn\u0131”, y\u00fczde 14.4’\u00fc “Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc” yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n

Erkekler karamsar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Erkekler 2009 y\u0131l\u0131na daha karamsar bak\u0131yor. Erkeklerin y\u00fczde 44.4’\u00fc, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 36.6’s\u0131 2009’un daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Erkeklerin y\u00fczde 27.1’i, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 28.4’\u00fc 2009’un daha iyi olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatinde.
\nGen\u00e7ler ve 44 ya\u015f \u00fczeri se\u00e7menler, genel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir y\u0131l bekliyor. 27 ya\u015f ve alt\u0131 se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 41.1’i, 28-43 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 36.9’u, 44 ya\u015f ve \u00fcst\u00fc se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 43.3’\u00fc 2009’un daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.\n<\/p>\n

E\u011fitim y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, karamsarlar\u0131n oran\u0131 da h\u0131zla art\u0131yor. \u0130lkokul mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 35.7’si, ortaokul-lise mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 42.7’si, \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 48’i “Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc” yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi. B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerden k\u0131rsal kesime do\u011fru gidildik\u00e7e de karamsarlar\u0131n oran\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n \u00fcslubu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, toplam se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 48,7’sinin Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n \u00fcslubunu sert buldu\u011funu ve Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Oyunu AKP d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki partilere veren se\u00e7menler y\u00fcksek oranda, Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n \u00fcslubu sert demi\u015ftir. AKP’ye oy veren her 100 se\u00e7menden 20’si de Ba\u015fbakan sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz cevab\u0131 vermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Erkekler, gen\u00e7ler, genel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde Ba\u015fbakan i\u00e7in sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz demi\u015ftir. E\u011fitim y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131 ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz bulanlar\u0131n oran\u0131nda \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir.<\/p>\n

Elbette ki, bu sonu\u00e7ta se\u00e7men profillerinin de etkisi var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, e\u011fitim y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e muhalefet partilerine oy verenlerin oran\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131 sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz bulanlar bu tavr\u0131n son se\u00e7imde AKP’ye \u00e7ok oy kaybettirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. (Y\u00fczde 46.2).<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na etkisi olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r diyenlerin oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 14.7’dir.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcn yay\u0131mlanan b\u00f6l\u00fcmde de sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi, Ba\u015fbakan’\u0131n sert tavr\u0131n\u0131n 29 Mart yerel se\u00e7imlerinde AKP’nin oy kayb\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir etkisi oldu\u011fu a\u015fikar.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, ayl\u0131k d\u00fczenli olarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda, Ba\u015fbakan Sn. Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131 “Y\u00fcrekli – cesur – delikanl\u0131” gibi s\u0131fatlarla tan\u0131mlayanlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bile son d\u00f6nemlerde, \u00f6zellikle se\u00e7im meydanlar\u0131ndaki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131, sert ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz olarak nitelendiriyor.<\/p>\n

Otoriter rejim<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Y\u00fczde 50 oyla AKP otoriter bir rejim getirir mi?” sorusuna verilen yan\u0131tlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, se\u00e7menin \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1 \/ 3’\u00fc “Evet, AKP y\u00fczde 50 oy alsayd\u0131, bu bizi daha otoriter bir rejime g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcrd\u00fc” derken, 1 \/ 3 “Hay\u0131r, g\u00f6t\u00fcrmezdi” yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftir.
\nDi\u011fer 1 \/ 3’\u00fcn ise kafas\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Bu kesimin, “Belki g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcrd\u00fc” dedi\u011fini veya bu soruya cevap vermedi\u011fini \/ veremedi\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.\n<\/p>\n

AKP se\u00e7meninin bile sadece y\u00fczde 54.5’inin bu soruya “hay\u0131r” cevab\u0131 vermesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. Erkeklerin, gen\u00e7lerin ve e\u011fitimlilerin son se\u00e7imlerde AKP’nin y\u00fcksek oy almas\u0131 halinde b\u00f6yle bir endi\u015felerinin oldu\u011funu ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Gelecekten beklenti?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7lara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, se\u00e7menin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn gelecek konusunda kayg\u0131l\u0131 ve karamsar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son se\u00e7imlerde sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenler ve muhalefet partilerine oy verenler, gelecek konusunda daha kayg\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ancak, gelecek ile ilgili kayg\u0131lar\u0131 sadece siyasi sonu\u00e7lara indirgemek do\u011fru de\u011fil. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, kayg\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u00e7ok a\u015f, i\u015f gibi toplumun temel sorunlar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eubat 2008’den bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z t\u00fcm ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda, gelecek endi\u015fesi ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00f6nemli bir kitlenin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve toplumun yoksulluk alg\u0131s\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f var.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrban yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131yla, yarg\u0131yla h\u00fck\u00fcmet aras\u0131nda ba\u015flayan, kapatma davas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde daha da derinle\u015fen, \u00fcst\u00fcne ekonomik krizin tuz biber ekti\u011fi karamsarl\u0131k ve endi\u015fe halinin en k\u0131sa zamanda giderilmesi, bu \u00fclkede ya\u015fayan herkesin en \u00f6nemli dile\u011fi.<\/p>\n

Kaynak : Vatan<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n

Partisi, son genel se\u00e7imlerde oylar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 alan Erdo\u011fan i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn, se\u00e7menin yar\u0131s\u0131 ‘Erdo\u011fan ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz’ diyor<\/p>\n

\u0130ki se\u00e7menden biri Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n “ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz” oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. AKP’li se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 20’si bile “ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcz” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131yor. AKP y\u00fczde 50 oy alsayd\u0131, “T\u00fcrkiye gerilip, otoriter bir rejime do\u011fru giderdi” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00fczde 35 kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Y\u00fczde <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8241\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}