{"id":7217,"date":"2009-04-01T09:00:15","date_gmt":"2009-04-01T06:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=7217"},"modified":"2009-04-01T09:00:15","modified_gmt":"2009-04-01T06:00:15","slug":"baski-altindaki-dolarla-adaletsiz-kiyaslama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=7217","title":{"rendered":"Bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki dolarla adaletsiz k\u0131yaslama"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"ErcanBa\u015fbakan Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7im mitinglerinde s\u0131k\u00e7a kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem var: 6.5 y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen baz\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri 1923-2002 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak. Yani AKP’ye kadar ge\u00e7en 79 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminde katedilen yolu, AKP H\u00fck\u00fcmeti s\u0131ras\u0131nda katedilen yolla k\u0131yaslamak.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n i\u015f hayat\u0131na bir sucuk fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n muhasebe defterlerini tutarak ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ondan sonraki i\u015f hayat\u0131nda da ciddi i\u015f hacmi olan bisk\u00fcvi-gofret da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Yani Erdo\u011fan “teorik olarak” rakamlara hakim biri. Hemen her f\u0131rsatta rakam vererek konu\u015fmas\u0131, “Biz bu i\u015fi biliriz, bakkal d\u00fckkan\u0131 de\u011fil devlet y\u00f6netiyoruz” demesi de bu konuda kendine g\u00fcveninden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Muhalefet liderlerinin “matematik” konusunda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n i\u015fine yar\u0131yor. Muhalefet liderleri, \u00f6rne\u011fin “AKP d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye’nin borcu artt\u0131” diye h\u00fck\u00fcmete “\u00e7akmaya” kalk\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Erdo\u011fan an\u0131nda do\u011fru olan cevab\u0131 veriyor. T\u00fcrkiye’nin toplam borcunu, milli gelirle k\u0131yaslayarak “Toplam bor\u00e7 artsa bile, bor\u00e7 sto\u011funun milli gelir i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n ciddi \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” izah ediyor. \u00dczerine dalgas\u0131n\u0131 da ge\u00e7iyor. ABD’nin toplam borcunun 10 trilyon dolar oldu\u011funu, ama milli gelirinin 13 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131p, “Hesap bunlar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi yap\u0131lsa, sadece toplam borca bak\u0131lsa ABD \u00e7oktan batm\u0131\u015f” demeye getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan d\u00f6nemindeki ger\u00e7ek art\u0131\u015f % 41.1’dir<\/p>\n

\u00dcstteki mant\u0131k do\u011fru da, Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7im mitinglerinde partilileri co\u015ftururken, grup toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda milletvekillerini alk\u0131\u015flat\u0131rken verdi\u011fi baz\u0131 rakamlarda, daha do\u011frusu k\u0131yaslamalarda “hayati” bir hata var. Ya da Erdo\u011fan “bu hatay\u0131 bilerek yap\u0131p”, rakamlar\u0131 bilerek kendi lehine yorumluyor.<\/p>\n

Nedir bu hatalar veya \u00e7arp\u0131tmalar, bir bakal\u0131m:<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fbakan son mitinglerde s\u0131k s\u0131k \u015fu rakam\u0131 dile getirdi: “T\u00fcrkiye’nin milli gelirini 230 milyar dolarda ald\u0131k, 6.5 y\u0131lda 750 milyar dolara getirdik. 79 y\u0131lda 230 milyar dolar, 6.5 y\u0131lda bunun \u00fczerine 520 milyar dolar koyduk.”<\/p>\n

Kula\u011fa ho\u015f geliyor. Ba\u015fbakan “1 ald\u0131k 3 yapt\u0131k, y\u00fczde 200 art\u0131rd\u0131k” diyor.<\/p>\n

Burada 2 kritik hata veya “kas\u0131tl\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131tma” var. \u0130lki \u015fu: Son 6.5 y\u0131lda ortada y\u00fczde 200’l\u00fck bir zenginle\u015fme veya \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 falan yok. Burada rakamlar\u0131 \u015fi\u015firen unsur bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki dolar kuru. Buradaki geli\u015fmeyi, ilerlemeyi do\u011fru okumak i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi sabit fiyatlarla, yani enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fiyatlarla TL \u00fczerinden veren rakamlara bakmak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n

T\u00dc\u0130K’in d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSY\u0130H) rakamlar\u0131na bakal\u0131m: (Merak edenler www.tuik.gov.tr adresinden bakabilir)<\/p>\n

AKP Aral\u0131k 2002’de h\u00fck\u00fcmeti kurarak tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar\u0131 devrald\u0131. 2002 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda sabit fiyatlarla GSY\u0130H 72 milyar 520 milyon TL’ydi. 2008 sonunda sabit fiyatlarla GSY\u0130H 102 milyar 328 milyon TL oldu. Yani 2003-2008 aras\u0131nda 6 y\u0131ll\u0131k toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 41.1.<\/p>\n

Bu durumda 6 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama k\u00fcm\u00fclatif y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5.9’a geliyor. Bu rakam da ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnyada kaydedilen y\u00fczde 4.5 civar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 30 \u00fczerinde. Makroekonomiyi takip edenler, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin d\u00fcnya ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden y\u00fczde 30-40 fazla olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bilir. Yani serinkanl\u0131 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortada \u00f6yle mucize falan yok.<\/p>\n

T\u00dc\u0130K d\u00fcn cari 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131yla GSY\u0130H’sinin 950 milyar TL oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama dolar kurunu da 1.281 olarak ald\u0131. Dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, milli gelir hesab\u0131n\u0131 dolarla yapmak rakamlar\u0131 oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok iyi g\u00f6steriyor. San\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fbakan 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 rakamlar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015fin do\u011frusuna yani TL hesab\u0131na d\u00f6nmek zorunda kalacak.<\/p>\n

K\u0131yaslama da hatal\u0131<\/p>\n

Bence daha \u00f6nemlisi Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n 79 y\u0131lla, kendi 6.5 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylem. Verdi\u011fi rakamlar istatistik biliminin katlinden bile daha vahim. Teknik bir konu ama basit anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m:<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n dolar hesab\u0131ndan gidelim: Evet milli geliri 230 milyar dolarda ald\u0131, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 kurlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 742 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. 79 y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fenin \u00fczerine kabaca 510 milyar dolar koydu.<\/p>\n

Diyelim ki T\u00fcrkiye’yi 2009 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren farkl\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet y\u00f6netiyor. Diyelim ki bu h\u00fck\u00fcmet de 6 y\u0131l iktidarda kald\u0131. Yine diyelim ki bu h\u00fck\u00fcmet 2014 sonunda milli gelirin \u00fczerine 700 milyar dolar daha koydu. Yani 742 milyar dolar\u0131 1 trilyon 442 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

Hangisi daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131, AKP H\u00fck\u00fcmeti mi, yoksa hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmetimiz mi?<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n hesab\u0131na g\u00f6re hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmet daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmet Erdo\u011fan H\u00fck\u00fcmeti’nden neredeyse 200 milyar dolar daha fazla milli gelir ekledi. Hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmetin lideri de “Erdo\u011fan 6 y\u0131lda 510 milyar dolar eklemi\u015fti, ben 700 milyar dolar ekledim” diye meydanlar\u0131 co\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n

Hayali Ba\u015fbakan hakl\u0131 m\u0131? Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n s\u00f6ylemine g\u00f6re hakl\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ama ger\u00e7ekte de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Anlatay\u0131m: Erdo\u011fan milli geliri 230 milyardan, 742 milyar dolara getirirken y\u00fczde 226 art\u0131\u015f sa\u011flad\u0131. Hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmet ise 742’den 1 trilyon 442’ye \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131p, 6 y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 95’lik art\u0131\u015f sa\u011flad\u0131. Toplam rakamda hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00f6nde olsa da, ger\u00e7ekte Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7ok daha fazla.<\/p>\n

Yahi hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmetin lideri mitinglerde “Ben daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131y\u0131m” diyerek Erdo\u011fan’a b\u00fcy\u00fck haks\u0131zl\u0131k yapm\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n

Aynen Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n \u015fu anda kendi d\u00f6nemini, kendinden \u00f6nceki 79 y\u0131lla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haks\u0131zl\u0131k gibi.<\/p>\n

Mahfi E\u011filmez ile Ercan Kumcu’nun yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomi Politikas\u0131 adl\u0131 kitaba g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye’nin 1923 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki milli geliri 570.4 milyon dolar. Erdo\u011fan ise 2002 sonunda milli geliri 230 milyar dolarda devrald\u0131.<\/p>\n

1923-2002 aras\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f 403 kat (y\u00fczde 40300). Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n d\u00f6nemindeki art\u0131\u015f ise 2.26 kat (y\u00fczde 226) Detay\u0131na girmek istemiyorum ama 79 y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u0131yaslamalardaki ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi rakamlarda da ayn\u0131 mant\u0131k ge\u00e7erli. Mutlak rakam de\u011fil, art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6nemli. T\u00fcrkiye’nin d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaretinden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay \u00f6nemli. (Payda Erdo\u011fan d\u00f6neminde ciddi art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu kesin)<\/p>\n

Veya “Biz geldi\u011fimizde 9 ilde do\u011falgaz vard\u0131, biz 50 k\u00fcsur ile ula\u015ft\u0131k”, “\u015eu kadar ilkokulda internet vard\u0131, \u015fu kadara \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131k” gibi \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n geli\u015fimine uygun, zaten yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken \u015feylerle \u00f6v\u00fcnmek, k\u0131yaslama yapmak da hatal\u0131.<\/p>\n

Aksi halde hayali h\u00fck\u00fcmet 2015’te \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p “\u015eu kadar ilde g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisine ge\u00e7tim, \u015fu kadar okula robot \u00f6\u011fretmen yollad\u0131m. Sen niye uyudun ey Tayyip Erdo\u011fan” derse, yutkunur susars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Kaynak : Ercan \u0130nan – Vatan Gazetesi<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ba\u015fbakan Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7im mitinglerinde s\u0131k\u00e7a kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem var: 6.5 y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen baz\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri 1923-2002 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak. Yani AKP’ye kadar ge\u00e7en 79 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminde katedilen yolu, AKP H\u00fck\u00fcmeti s\u0131ras\u0131nda katedilen yolla k\u0131yaslamak.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n i\u015f hayat\u0131na bir sucuk fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n muhasebe defterlerini tutarak ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7217\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}