{"id":68204,"date":"2020-05-22T11:21:26","date_gmt":"2020-05-22T08:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=68204"},"modified":"2020-05-22T12:20:40","modified_gmt":"2020-05-22T09:20:40","slug":"harvard-profesorleri-uyardi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=68204","title":{"rendered":"Harvard profes\u00f6rleri uyard\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

2008-2009 krizinin 800 y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomi tarihindeki krizlerden farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018Bu Defa Farkl\u0131\u2019 kitab\u0131nda yazan Harvard profes\u00f6rleri Reinhart ve Rogoff \u201cBu defa ger\u00e7ekten farkl\u0131\u201d diyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biri\u00a0D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n yeni\u00a0ba\u015fekonomist<\/strong>i, di\u011feri\u00a0IMF<\/strong>\u2019de\u00a0direkt\u00f6r yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong>\u00a0ve ba\u015fekonomist olarak g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f iki\u00a0profes\u00f6r<\/strong>;\u00a0Carmen Reinhart<\/strong>\u00a0ve\u00a0Kenneth Rogoff<\/strong>; ikili 2008\u00a0kriz<\/strong>ine ili\u015fkin yazd\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018Bu Defa Farkl\u0131<\/strong>\u2019 isimli kitaba at\u0131fta bulunarak \u201cBu defa ger\u00e7ekten farkl\u0131\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

Cumhuriyet’in haberine g\u00f6re; Reinhart ve Rogoff\u2019un 800 y\u0131ll\u0131k\u00a0ekonomi<\/strong>\u00a0tarihindeki krizleri inceledi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma 2008-2009 krizinin hi\u00e7 de s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgusu yapm\u0131\u015f, bunu kitab\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da tiye alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

2008 \u0130Y\u0130 B\u0130R KR\u0130ZD\u0130, BU \u00d6YLE DE\u011e\u0130L<\/strong><\/p>\n

Her ikisi de\u00a0karantina<\/strong>\u00a0da olan\u00a0Harvard<\/strong>\u00a0profes\u00f6rleri Bloomberg ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri sohbette ekonomik modellerin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyimlerin \u015fablon olarak kullan\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. \u0130kiliye g\u00f6re salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in uygulanan tecrit \u00f6nlemleri ise bu pandemiyi di\u011ferlerinden farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran di\u011fer \u00f6nemli unsur. Bu krizin tam anlam\u0131yla k\u00fcresel olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirten Rogoff \u201c2008\u2019de geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler \u2018iyi\u2019 bir kriz g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, bu sefer vir\u00fcs bu \u00fclkeleri ne oranda vurmu\u015f olursa olsun, \u2018iyi\u2019 bir kriz olmayacak\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in gelecek iki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca ortalama y\u00fczde 1 b\u00fcy\u00fcrse, bunun iyi bir sonu\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Rogoff , \u201cSava\u015fta gibiyiz ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00fclkelere not vermeyece\u011fim. Ne kadar istihdam sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 notlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u201d diyor. ABD ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerle – biri i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckselmesine izin verip do\u011frudan destek sa\u011flayarak, di\u011feri \u015firket ve istihdamlar\u0131 korumak yoluyla – tepki g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirten Rogoff \u201cAvrupa\u2019daki \u015firketler de kriz uzarsa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00e7\u0131kartmak zorunda kalacak\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

KR\u0130Z T\u00dcRK\u0130YE’YE HAYL\u0130 MAL\u0130YETL\u0130 OLACAK<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni ba\u015fekonomisti bor\u00e7 sorunsal\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerinde ise geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de aralar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fen ekonomilerin \u2018berbat\u2019 durumda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Reinhart Nijerya, G\u00fcney Afrika, T\u00fcrkiye, Ekvador ve Arjantin\u2019de krizin hayli maliyetli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Sohbette \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 durumunun ise uzarsa Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde istikrars\u0131zla\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fine COVID-19 krizinin bir bor\u00e7 krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ekonomilerin kriz sonras\u0131nda daha i\u00e7e d\u00f6n\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Reinhart \u201c\u00d6zellikle t\u0131bbi malzeme ve ekipman ve g\u0131da kousunda kendimize yetmek isteyece\u011fiz\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

2019 D\u00dcZEY\u0130NE BE\u015e YILDA D\u00d6NERSEK \u0130Y\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya gazetesinde yer alan habere g\u00f6re, her iki uzman da hisse piyasalar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin genel bir V-tipi iyile\u015fme beklentisiyle de k\u0131smen ilintili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce fakat ikisi de V-tipi iyile\u015fmeye ihtimal veriyor. En iyi ihtimalle U-tipi iyile\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Rogoff \u201cBe\u015f y\u0131lda 2019 ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH d\u00fczeylerine d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi iyi bir sonu\u00e7 olur. Ger\u00e7ekte GSYH\u2019nin ne kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekonomi tarih\u00e7ileri y\u0131llarca tart\u0131\u015facak. Bence bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde iflas avukatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fi artacak\u201d diyor. A\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Reinhart W-tipi iyile\u015fmenin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u0130kilinin kitab\u0131na g\u00f6re kriz sonras\u0131 iyile\u015fme ortalama d\u00f6rt y\u0131l s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, krizin benzetildi\u011fi B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u2019da ise iyile\u015fme 10 y\u0131l s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Rogoff negatif faizin uygulanamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyken, Reinhart ise bu konuda Rogoff \u2019a kat\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaynak : krttv.com.tr<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

2008-2009 krizinin 800 y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomi tarihindeki krizlerden farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018Bu Defa Farkl\u0131\u2019 kitab\u0131nda yazan Harvard profes\u00f6rleri Reinhart ve Rogoff \u201cBu defa ger\u00e7ekten farkl\u0131\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

Biri D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni ba\u015fekonomisti, di\u011feri IMF\u2019de direkt\u00f6r yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ba\u015fekonomist olarak g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f iki profes\u00f6r; Carmen Reinhart ve Kenneth Rogoff; ikili 2008 krizine ili\u015fkin yazd\u0131klar\u0131 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,7,105],"tags":[5790,5794,5786,5111,5785,5793,5787,5789,5642,4655,5788,5792,746],"class_list":["post-68204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-gundem","tag-abd-merkez-bankasi-fed-2","tag-bas-ekonomist","tag-carmen-reinhart","tag-cin","tag-dunya-bankasi","tag-guney-afrika","tag-harvard-universitesi","tag-imf","tag-koronavirus-salgini","tag-kredi","tag-modern-ipek-yolu-projesi","tag-nijerya","tag-turkiye","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68204\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}