{"id":66095,"date":"2017-03-31T09:02:11","date_gmt":"2017-03-31T06:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=66095"},"modified":"2017-03-31T12:27:06","modified_gmt":"2017-03-31T09:27:06","slug":"yard-doc-dr-gundogdu-marmaradaki-o-faylanma-canimi-sikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=66095","title":{"rendered":"Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu: Marmara\u2019daki o faylanma can\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Jeofizik uzman\u0131 Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamalara dayanarak olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi\u2019nin Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine g\u00f6re \u2018+\u20190.2\u2019 veya \u2018-0.2\u2019 yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 ile 7.5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, 2014\u2019te G\u00f6k\u00e7eada\u2019n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda meydana gelen \u2018Kuzey Anadolu fay hatt\u0131n\u0131n bat\u0131ya do\u011fru bir geli\u015fmesi\u2019 olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi faylanman\u0131n \u2018can\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Afetlere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Avc\u0131lar Belediyesi’nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi Kent Konseyi\u2019nin de destek verdi\u011fi ABAG (Avc\u0131lar Belediyesi Afet G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcleri) Projesi\u2019nin her ay d\u00fczenledi\u011fi e\u011fitim toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sonuncusu Cihangir Mahallesi’ndeki Kent Evi’nde yap\u0131ld\u0131. Toplant\u0131ya kat\u0131lan Jeofizik uzman\u0131 Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, 2014’te G\u00f6k\u00e7eada’n\u0131n haritada sar\u0131 renkte g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u2018faylanma’ g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bunun Kuzey Anadolu Fay Hatt\u0131’n\u0131n bat\u0131ya do\u011fru bir geli\u015fmesi sonucu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, \u201cBu geli\u015fmeden sonra Marmara’da her \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Benim can\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131kacak \u015feyler de olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2015’te sar\u0131 ile g\u00f6sterilecek aktivite ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu ters fay. Yani bir yerde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran mekanizma olu\u015fuyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran mekanizma olmas\u0131 do\u011fal \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 kuzeye do\u011fru s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma meydana getiriyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

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Kent Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mert Ali Ak, t\u00fcm toplumun afetlere haz\u0131rl\u0131k ama\u00e7layan bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara kat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 isterken, tek ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturmak oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Jeofizik uzman\u0131 Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, konu\u015fmas\u0131nda bozuk, \u00e7arp\u0131k yap\u0131la\u015fma ve insanlar\u0131n bilgilendirilmemesinin olas\u0131 felakete kar\u015f\u0131 riskleri artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgularken, \u201cNormal bir yap\u0131la\u015fma; \u00f6rne\u011fin Amerika’daki San Andreas Fay\u0131 civar\u0131ndaki yap\u0131\u015fma olsa bizim bu kadar riskimiz olmazd\u0131. Fakat 17 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde maalesef bu seviyeye gelemedik. Bunun tek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’deki fay hatlar\u0131na de\u011finen Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte MTA’n\u0131n petrol arama ama\u00e7l\u0131 s\u0131\u011f ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yapan \u2018Sismik1′ gemisi ile bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda haz\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131 haritalar bulundu\u011funu anlatt\u0131. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, ilk kez g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirtti\u011fi bir haritay\u0131 perdeye yans\u0131t\u0131rken \u015f\u00f6yle dedi:<\/p>\n

\u201cBunu bir Frans\u0131z yapm\u0131\u015f. Ortas\u0131nda Adalar’\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir fay \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ortaya. Bu ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir haritada yok. Bu kadar d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir fay \u00e7izilmesi insan\u0131 ku\u015fkuland\u0131r\u0131yor. 1894 \u0130stanbul depremi Marmara B\u00f6lgesi’nde tek ismini veren depremdir. 1894’te \u0130stanbul’a olan o depremi acaba bu fay m\u0131 yaratt\u0131 Bu fay\u0131 ba\u015fka bir haritada g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in ara\u015ft\u0131rma gemileri buna pek fazla itibar etmemi\u015f.\u201d<\/p>\n

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251 YILA G\u00d6RE HESAPLAMA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, izleyicilerden birisinin sorusu \u00fczerine beklenen olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi’nin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc 0.2 yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 ile 7.5 olarak buldu\u011funu anlat\u0131rken, \u201cYalova taraf\u0131, Yunanistan y\u00f6n\u00fcne do\u011fru y\u0131lda 2-2.5 santim hareket ediyor. 1766’dan 251 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. 251 sene 2.5 santimetreden hesaplad\u0131k, biraz daha matematik var. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hesaplara g\u00f6re 0.2 yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 ile 7.5 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yani b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 7.3-7.5 aras\u0131nda. B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck ve \u015fiddet ayr\u0131 konular. \u015eiddeti tam say\u0131 ile s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum Avc\u0131lar 17 A\u011fustos depremini 9, Bak\u0131rk\u00f6y 8 \u015fiddetinde hissetti\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n

1999’DAK\u0130 ANORMALL\u0130K VE UMUT<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, 1999’daki Marmara Depremi’nin Avc\u0131lar’daki etkisinin hissedilmesinde bir anormallik oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerken, \u201cDeprem dalgalar\u0131 Avc\u0131lar’a gelince b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u201d dedi, yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve haz\u0131rlanan raporlar\u0131n belediyeye iletildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Olas\u0131 yeni deprem i\u00e7in Avc\u0131lar i\u00e7in umut bulundu\u011funu ifade eden Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n

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\u201cKADIK\u00d6Y, \u00c7OK DAHA TEHL\u0130KEL\u0130\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201c1999’daki depremin y\u00f6n\u00fc tam kar\u015f\u0131dan yani deprem dalgalar\u0131 G\u00f6lc\u00fck taraf\u0131ndan geliyordu. \u0130zledi\u011fi yolda bir yans\u0131ma buldu veya gelip iki zon i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. \u0130ki zon aras\u0131nda kal\u0131nca frekans\u0131 \u00e7ok artt\u0131, genli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Olmad\u0131k hasarlar yapt\u0131. Ama bu hasarlar Avc\u0131lar’\u0131n her taraf\u0131nda yok. Belirli yerlerde E5’in sa\u011f\u0131 solu, ve bir mahallede var. Denizden yamac\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra hemen hemen hasar yok. Bu tabii yersel ko\u015fullarda \u00f6zel bir durum. Beklenen yeni deprem \u015fimdi Avc\u0131lar’\u0131n yan\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Avc\u0131lar’\u0131n yan\u0131nda kal\u0131nca o kadar \u015fiddetli hissetmeyece\u011fiz. Deprem dalgalar\u0131 \u2018Makaslama’ att\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman elips \u015feklinde hasar yay\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131r\u0131lma 251 y\u0131lda biriken enerji bitinceye kadar devam edecek. Buradaki hasar elips \u015feklinde oluyor. Hasar yani bu tarafa do\u011fru \u015fiddeti hemen azal\u0131yor mesafeye ba\u011fl\u0131. Avc\u0131lar’a g\u00f6re Kad\u0131k\u00f6y \u00e7ok daha tehlikeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istikamet olarak fay\u0131n tam kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kalacaklar. G\u00f6lc\u00fck’te olan depremde Adapazar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha fazla hasar ald\u0131. Ama kameralar falan oraya az gitti\u011fi i\u00e7in pek bilinmiyor. Bunun nedeni birincisi zemin fakt\u00f6r\u00fc, ikincisi tam depremin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kald\u0131lar. B\u00fct\u00fcn ivmesini, her \u015feyini ald\u0131lar.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\u201cCANIM SIKILDI\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, 2014’te G\u00f6k\u00e7eada’n\u0131n haritada sar\u0131 renkte g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u2018faylanma’ g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bunun Kuzey Anadolu Fay Hatt\u0131’n\u0131n bat\u0131ya do\u011fru bir geli\u015fmesi sonucu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, \u201cBu geli\u015fmeden sonra Marmara’da her \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Benim can\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131kacak \u015feyler de olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2015’te sar\u0131 ile g\u00f6sterilecek aktivite ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu ters fay. Yani bir yerde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran mekanizma olu\u015fuyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran mekanizma olmas\u0131 do\u011fal \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 kuzeye do\u011fru s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma meydana getiriyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Avc\u0131lar Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Handan Toprak Benli, do\u011fa olaylar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinemedi\u011fi takdirde \u2018Afet’ olarak nitelendirilebilece\u011fini bu nedenle e\u011fitimden her alana kadar \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Deprem riski ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak Avc\u0131lar’daki eski ve yorgun binalar\u0131n yenilenmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Toprak Benli, binalar\u0131n yenilenmesindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engelin binalara en fazla 4 kat izni verilmesi oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131rken, \u201cOy birli\u011fi ile g\u00f6nderdi\u011fimiz Nisan ay\u0131na kalan \u0130BB’deki imar plan\u0131 onay\u0131 ile Avc\u0131lar’daki eski binalar mevcut kat say\u0131s\u0131 korunarak yani 1982 planlar\u0131ndaki katlar\u0131 \u2018M\u00fcktesep hak’ kabul edilerek yenilenebilecek\u201d dedi. (DHA)<\/p>\n

Kaynak<\/span> :\u00a0http:\/\/www.sozcu.com.tr\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

Jeofizik uzman\u0131 Yard.Do\u00e7.Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamalara dayanarak olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi\u2019nin Richter \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine g\u00f6re \u2018+\u20190.2\u2019 veya \u2018-0.2\u2019 yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 ile 7.5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, 2014\u2019te G\u00f6k\u00e7eada\u2019n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda meydana gelen \u2018Kuzey Anadolu fay hatt\u0131n\u0131n bat\u0131ya do\u011fru bir geli\u015fmesi\u2019 olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi faylanman\u0131n \u2018can\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Afetlere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Avc\u0131lar <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[4820,4822,4819,4821,4824,4818,4823,4817,4816],"class_list":["post-66095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","tag-abag-avcilar-belediyesi-afet-gonulluleri-projesi","tag-aktivite","tag-avcilar-belediyesi","tag-faylanma","tag-kentsel-donusum","tag-kuzey-anadolu-fay-hatti","tag-mert-ali-ak","tag-olasi-marmara-depremi","tag-yard-doc-dr-oguz-gundogdu","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66095\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}