{"id":65232,"date":"2017-03-06T23:20:44","date_gmt":"2017-03-06T20:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=65232"},"modified":"2017-03-07T13:45:59","modified_gmt":"2017-03-07T10:45:59","slug":"akpde-hayir-sikintisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=65232","title":{"rendered":"AKP\u2019de hay\u0131r s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-65233\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/2017-03-07_134158.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"267\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AKP anketlerden istedi\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 alam\u0131yor. \u2018\u0130taatsizler\u2019, MHP taban\u0131n\u0131n \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 direni\u015fi ve CHP se\u00e7meninin net \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 tavr\u0131 AKP\u2019de gerilimi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Referanduma 40 g\u00fcn kala AKP, anketlerde arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyi haberi hen\u00fcz alamaman\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Kendi i\u00e7indeki hay\u0131rc\u0131 ve karars\u0131zlarla MHP se\u00e7meninin hay\u0131rda direni\u015finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra CHP se\u00e7meninin neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131n hay\u0131rc\u0131 olu\u015fu AKP\u2019yi zorluyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AKP, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k referandumunda ilk kez zamanlamay\u0131 kendisi belirlemedi. Zamanlamaya MHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Devlet Bah\u00e7eli karar verdi. AKP, Bah\u00e7eli\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz deste\u011fini reddedemeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in ilk kez takvimini kendisinin kurgulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir referandum s\u00fcrecinin i\u00e7ine girdi. Zamanlamay\u0131 MHP\u2019nin belirlemesi, kampanyan\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla AKP i\u00e7inde baz\u0131 zaaflar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine neden oldu. Bu zaaflar, 16 Nisan\u2019a 40 g\u00fcn kala anketlerde kendini g\u00f6sterdi.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tek sorun MHP de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Referandumda evet\u00e7i cephe i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n MHP se\u00e7menindeki hay\u0131rc\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funda yayg\u0131n bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi bulunuyor. \u015eu ana kadar t\u00fcm g\u00f6zlemciler, MHP se\u00e7meninin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn hay\u0131r e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu kabul ediyor. Ancak son anketler, AKP\u2019nin 16 Nisan referandumundaki tek sorununun MHP se\u00e7menindeki hay\u0131r e\u011filimi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Anketlere g\u00f6re AKP\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde referandumu kaybetmesine neden olacak \u00fc\u00e7 sorun bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0130taatsiz AKP\u2019liler:<\/strong> AKP y\u00f6netimi ve anket\u00e7i kurulu\u015flar, AKP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131n\u0131 1 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki y\u00fczde 50 \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131na uygun belirleyerek hesap yap\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re AKP\u2019nin tamam\u0131n\u0131n evet demesi durumunda neredeyse MHP\u2019den al\u0131nacak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir destekle referandumun \u015fimdiden garantilenmesi gerekiyor. Ancak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler bunu g\u00f6stermiyor. Anketler ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, AKP se\u00e7meninden gelecek evet oran\u0131n\u0131n 7 Haziran\u2019a \u00e7ok benzer \u015fekilde y\u00fczde 40\u2019larda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Se\u00e7imde AKP\u2019ye oy verenler i\u00e7inde en az y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik bir kesimin referandum i\u00e7in evet demeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Karars\u0131z ve sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyeceklerle \u201cgizli hay\u0131rc\u0131\u201dlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hay\u0131r oyu verenlerin de \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda evet demeyeceklerin y\u00fczde 10\u2019u bulmas\u0131ndan kayg\u0131 duyuluyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CHP tam hay\u0131rc\u0131:<\/strong> AKP\u2019de, orta\u011f\u0131 MHP ve kendi i\u00e7indeki oy firelerini CHP\u2019den gelebilecek evet oylar\u0131yla telafi edilebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri de ifade ediliyor. Ancak bu beklenti, kampanyan\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla yap\u0131lan ilk anketlerde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulamad\u0131. Anketler, tercihinde en net tutumda olan se\u00e7menin CHP\u2019liler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. CHP se\u00e7meninin neredeyse tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131 hay\u0131rda netle\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Karars\u0131zlar i\u00e7inde de en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck se\u00e7men grubunu CHP\u2019liler olu\u015fturuyor. Referandumun sonucunu etkileyemeyecek \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir az\u0131nl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda CHP se\u00e7meninin sand\u0131\u011fa giderek hay\u0131r diyece\u011fi t\u00fcm anketlerde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CHP\u2019nin kampanyada \u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmamas\u0131, yayg\u0131n mitingler yapmamas\u0131 da se\u00e7meninin netle\u015fmesi nedeniyle taktik a\u00e7\u0131dan do\u011fru bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>MHP se\u00e7meni geri gelmiyor:<\/strong> Kampanyan\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte AKP a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan anketlerde aranan sonu\u00e7, MHP se\u00e7meninin tercihinin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi de\u011fil, hay\u0131ra yak\u0131n se\u00e7menin geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcp d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemedi\u011fi oldu. Ancak tahmin ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler MHP se\u00e7meninin ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011fa direni\u015finin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. MHP se\u00e7meninin y\u00fczde 60\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde hay\u0131r ve karars\u0131z oldu\u011fu tespit edildi. Almanya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Avrupa \u00fclkeleriyle mitinglerle ilgili girilen sert polemiklerin de MHP se\u00e7meninin ikna edilememesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u00fcrtler mi \u00fclk\u00fcc\u00fcler mi belirleyecek<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En son 1 Kas\u0131m\u2019da ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019lar dolay\u0131ndaki oy dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda HDP ve K\u00fcrt oylar\u0131n\u0131n tercihi de referandumun en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. HDP, hay\u0131rdan yana oldu\u011funu resmen a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ancak e\u015fba\u015fkanlar ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7ok say\u0131da milletvekilinin tutuklu olmas\u0131 nedeniyle aktif bir kampanya y\u00fcr\u00fctmeleri beklenmiyor. AKP, HDP se\u00e7meni olmasa da muhafazak\u00e2r K\u00fcrtlerden y\u00fcksek bir evet deste\u011fi almay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle g\u00f6zler MHP se\u00e7meni ile HDP ve K\u00fcrt taban\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Siyasi kulislerde her iki tabandan gelecek oylar\u0131n etkisi dikkate al\u0131narak, \u201cReferandumda sonucu ya \u00fclk\u00fcc\u00fcler ya K\u00fcrtler, ya da her ikisi birden belirleyecek\u201d tespitleri de yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Kaynak :<\/span><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">\u00a0<a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cumhuriyet.com.tr\/haber\/siyaset\/692497\/AKP_de_hayir_sikintisi.html\" target=\"_blank\">Erdem G\u00fcl &#8211;\u00a0http:\/\/www.cumhuriyet.com.tr\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AKP anketlerden istedi\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 alam\u0131yor. \u2018\u0130taatsizler\u2019, MHP taban\u0131n\u0131n \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 direni\u015fi ve CHP se\u00e7meninin net \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 tavr\u0131 AKP\u2019de gerilimi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Referanduma 40 g\u00fcn kala AKP, anketlerde arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyi haberi hen\u00fcz alamaman\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Kendi i\u00e7indeki hay\u0131rc\u0131 ve karars\u0131zlarla MHP se\u00e7meninin hay\u0131rda direni\u015finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra CHP se\u00e7meninin neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131n hay\u0131rc\u0131 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65232\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}