{"id":61555,"date":"2015-11-09T19:21:30","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T17:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=61555"},"modified":"2015-11-09T19:55:10","modified_gmt":"2015-11-09T17:55:10","slug":"1-kasim-2015-genel-secimlerinin-istatistiki-analizinde-manipulasyon-izleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=61555","title":{"rendered":"1 Kas\u0131m 2015 Genel Se\u00e7imleri\u2019nin istatistiki analizinde manip\u00fclasyon izleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-61556 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/turkiye-1-kasim-secim-2015-670.jpg\" alt=\"turkiye-1-kasim-secim-2015-670\" width=\"500\" height=\"277\" \/>T\u00fcrkiye 1 Kas\u0131m genel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki yap\u0131lan kapsaml\u0131 bir istatistik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, se\u00e7imler \u00fczerinde manip\u00fclasyon yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stockholm School of Economist akademisyenlerinden Asistan Profes\u00f6r Erik Meyersson, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki 1 Kas\u0131m 2015 Genel Se\u00e7im Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018Hane Testleri ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Kas\u0131m Se\u00e7imlerindeki \u2018Garip\u2019 Se\u00e7im Dinamikleri\u2019 adl\u0131 makalesinde de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson\u2019un Benford Yasas\u0131 denilen bir y\u00f6ntemle analiz etti\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar kesin olarak usuls\u00fczl\u00fck tespiti yapam\u0131yor ama e\u011fer 7 Haziran se\u00e7imlerinde hile yoksa 1 Kas\u0131m\u2019da ku\u015fkulu sonu\u00e7lar oldu\u011fu tespitinde bulunuyor.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makalede, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n partisi AKP\u2019nin, 1 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinde oylar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 9 artt\u0131rarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir konsensus sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, tek ba\u015f\u0131na h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurabilecek \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu elde edebildi\u011fini, ancak anayasay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu hala elde edemedi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61557\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t095235z_533038192_lr2ebb10rfc1d_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>T\u00dcRK HALKININ \u2018SULTAN KOMPLEKS\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makalede, T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde\u2019 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir lider g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fi s\u00f6ylentileri yer al\u0131yor bu \u2018Sultan kompleksi\u2019 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson 1 Kas\u0131m genel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 AKP\u2019nin bir zaferi olarak de\u011fil, \u2018ultra-milliyet\u00e7i\u2019 MHP\u2019nin bir yenilgisi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61558\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-10-31t112812z_950249703_gf20000040076_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"323\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson, \u201cSon se\u00e7imde, ulusalc\u0131 ve K\u00fcrt se\u00e7menlerin \u00f6nceliklerinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran se\u00e7iminde HDP\u2019nin kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinde MHP\u2019nin kaybetti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Haziran se\u00e7imleri, HDP\u2019nin ilk kez baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7ip meclise girmesiyle AKP i\u00e7in bir \u015foktu\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AKP\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda MHP\u2019nin eriyen oylar\u0131na mal oldu\u011funun belirtildi\u011fi makalede, K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusun \u00e7o\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu illerden HDP\u2019ye oy veren bir\u00e7ok se\u00e7menin 1 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinde AKP\u2019ye verdi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61559\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/provdiffshr.jpg\" alt=\"provdiffshr\" width=\"600\" height=\"1200\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130ki se\u00e7im aras\u0131nda karar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finde bulunan se\u00e7menin genel profili ise, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir seviyesine sahip dindar kesim olmalar\u0131 ile ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Terazinin dengesinin kaymas\u0131n\u0131 sadece tercih de\u011fi\u015ftiren se\u00e7mene ba\u011flaman\u0131n do\u011fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve Haziran se\u00e7imlerinde y\u00fcksek kat\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6zlenen A\u011fr\u0131, Batman, Hakkari gibi K\u00fcrtlerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta oldu\u011fu illerden Kas\u0131m se\u00e7iminde kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sebebi ise devlet ve PKK aras\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen ve son aylarda t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7en \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar olarak g\u00f6sterilmi\u015f. Bu illerde HDP se\u00e7meninin sand\u0131\u011fa gitmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir etken olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61560\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/turnoutprov.jpg\" alt=\"turnoutprov\" width=\"600\" height=\"1200\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BENFORD YASASI SE\u00c7\u0130MLERE UYARLANDI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7imleri analiz ederken istatistikte hileleri ortaya koymakta kullan\u0131lan Benford Yasas\u0131 olarak bilinen matematiksel analiz y\u00f6ntemini kullan\u0131yor. Benford Yasas\u0131 k\u0131saca \u015fu \u015fekilde i\u015fliyor:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u015eivan Ok\u00e7uo\u011flu\u2019nun Odatv i\u00e7in derledi\u011fi haberde, kesin sonu\u00e7lar vermese de se\u00e7im hilelelerini tespit etmenin yollar\u0131ndan birisi olan Benford Yasas\u0131 y\u00f6ntemiyle, finansal analizlerde ve muhasebe kay\u0131tlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde uygulanan hilelerin tespitlerinde oldukca i\u015fe yarar sonu\u00e7lar elde edilebiliyor. Ancak se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 konusunda kesin bir yarg\u0131ya varmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabiliyor. Buna ra\u011fmen bir tak\u0131m tutars\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n tespitinde -kesin yarg\u0131ya varmamak kayd\u0131 ile- Benford Yasas\u0131\u2019ndan faydalan\u0131labiliyor. Meyersson, bu matematiksel analiz y\u00f6ntemini kullanarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de uygulanan se\u00e7imlerin bir istatistiki verisini \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 deniyor. Se\u00e7im sonucu analizleri yap\u0131l\u0131rken ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan rakamlar\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle son hane ya da sondan bir \u00f6nceki hane referans al\u0131n\u0131yor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61561\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t084813z_1272566191_lr2ebb10og20a_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"323\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rakamsal hane testlerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve onun nadiren 300-350\u2032den fazla oy i\u00e7eren sand\u0131klar\u0131na uygularken hangi rakamsal basama\u011f\u0131n referans al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi kolayca ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor. Son haneye odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda (-ki bu basamakta her rakam\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fit derecede oldu\u011funu unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z) bir \u00f6rnek da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek makul g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Ama e\u011fer \u00f6rneklemde bir\u00e7ok oy say\u0131s\u0131 100\u2032\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaysa, ikinci hane ayn\u0131 zamanda son hane olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ikinci hanenin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct olarak al\u0131nmak durumunda. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na oy say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6rnek da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma sahip olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir testin hatal\u0131 pozitif sonu\u00e7 vermesi muhtemelse de, bu do\u011fru olmak zorunda de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu hangi Benford Yasas\u0131 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131 sorununun etraf\u0131nda dola\u015fmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flasa da, iki farkl\u0131 ve \u00f6nemli varsay\u0131ma dayan\u0131yor. Bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n ilki Haziran 2015 se\u00e7iminde hile ya da rakam da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek d\u00fczensizlikler olmamas\u0131. \u0130kincisi ise oylamadaki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin, kendi ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 etkileyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olmamas\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin, e\u011fer bir se\u00e7imde X partisinin oy say\u0131lar\u0131 10-99, ikinci se\u00e7imde ise 0-9 aras\u0131ndaysa, hane da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki fark \u00fczerine yap\u0131lacak bir test, \u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde ortada bir problem oldu\u011fu sonucunu verebilir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, oy say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n boyutu da tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Meyersson bunun i\u00e7in istatistiksel testlerde do\u011frudan d\u00fczenlemeler yaparak ve ayn\u0131 zamanda partiler aras\u0131 oy say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n nispeten farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu se\u00e7im b\u00f6lgelerini i\u00e7eren alt gruplar\u0131 inceliyor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61562\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t143210z_345552185_lr2ebb114db4w_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"323\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>HAZ\u0130RAN VE KASIM SE\u00c7\u0130MLER\u0130N\u0130 KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRDI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson bu durumu incelemek i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da Kas\u0131m 2015 se\u00e7imindeki 174.648 ve Haziran\u2019daki 174,220 sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n tamam\u0131nda, s\u0131ras\u0131yla AKP, CHP, HDP ve MHP\u2019nin oylar\u0131n\u0131, iki se\u00e7imi k\u0131yaslayarak grafi\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Her grafi\u011fe iki P de\u011feri e\u015flik ediyor. Bu de\u011ferlerden biri, X partisinin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 oy say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n son hane ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n iki se\u00e7imde ayn\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n testinden geliyor. \u0130kinci P de\u011feri ise Kas\u0131m se\u00e7iminin bir modeli \u00fczerinde X partisinin oy say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n son hanesinin regresyonunda tahmin edilen fakt\u00f6rden geliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burada uygulanan y\u00f6ntem standart bir y\u00f6ntem olmamakla birlikte kullan\u0131lan oy oranlar\u0131 bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 esnada resmi rakamlar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ek olarak, olas\u0131 bir usuls\u00fczl\u00fcklerin oylama d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi de unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo, meclise giren d\u00f6rt partinin Haziran ve Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinde ald\u0131klar\u0131 oy oran\u0131 rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n son hanelerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6zlemek i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61563 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/1-kasim-genel-secimleri-analiz-1.jpg\" alt=\"1-kasim-genel-secimleri-analiz-1\" width=\"600\" height=\"411\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>H\u0130LE VE MAN\u0130P\u00dcLASYON \u015e\u0130KAYET\u0130 AZ<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Anket \u015firketleri Kas\u0131m se\u00e7iminin Haziran\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen se\u00e7imin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir tekrar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015flerdiyse de se\u00e7im gecesi 4.9 puan standart sapma ile ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketleri i\u00e7in bir utan\u00e7 gecesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli husus ise, se\u00e7imden birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce muhalif medya \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturulan bask\u0131lar ve bask\u0131nlar sayesinde se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak h\u00fck\u00fcmete yak\u0131n ajanslar taraf\u0131ndan duyurulmas\u0131 konusunda AKP\u2019nin kontrol\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ele almas\u0131 etkili oldu. Oylar o denli h\u0131zl\u0131 say\u0131ld\u0131 ki, h\u00fck\u00fcmet zaferini bas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce duyurma \u015fans\u0131 elde etti. Dikkat \u00e7ekici bir di\u011fer detay ise Haziran se\u00e7imine g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul\u2019da \u00e7\u0131kan ge\u00e7ersiz oy oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ersiz oylar kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sadece \u0130stanbul\u2019da 670.000 kadar ge\u00e7ersiz oy azal\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor ki bu ge\u00e7ersiz oy oran\u0131nda 5 puanl\u0131k bir de\u011fi\u015fim ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. T\u00fcm bunlara ra\u011fmen \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde Kas\u0131m se\u00e7iminin \u00f6nceki se\u00e7imlere nazaran en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede hile ve manip\u00fclasyon \u015fikayetinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7im oldu\u011funun da raporda alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor. Burada enteresan olan, aralar\u0131nda k\u0131sa bir zaman dilimi bulunan iki se\u00e7imde bu denli b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ge\u00e7ersiz oy kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ne \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi hususudur.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61564\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t144107z_210840737_lr2ebb114s85l_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>SE\u00c7MEN SAYISINDAK\u0130 ARTI\u015e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu noktada Meyersson, ki\u015fisel Blog\u2019unda link vererek referans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi American Enterprise Institute\u2019den Michael Rubin\u2019in Haziran ve Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imleri aras\u0131nda kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men oran\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi de ku\u015fkulu buldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Dikkat \u00e7eken husus, rekor d\u00fczeyde kat\u0131l\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olsa da verilen rakamlar kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 vermektedir. Buna g\u00f6re;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Haziran 2015\u2032te toplam kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 54.8 milyon iken, Kas\u0131m 2015\u2032te toplam kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 56.9 milyon olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu noktada, 5 ayl\u0131k bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde 2 milyona yak\u0131n kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men ne \u015fekilde t\u00fcremi\u015ftir sorusu kafalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61565\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t113110z_692468359_lr2ebb10vzn2u_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EN TUTARLI OY SONU\u00c7LARI CHP\u2019DE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sonu\u00e7 olarak, basamak tabanl\u0131 rakamsal analizlerde Haziran ve Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imleri aras\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck oynamalar\u0131n MHP\u2019nin oy oranlar\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 net bir tablo olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Be\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck ili referans ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda HDP\u2019nin basamak testlerinde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6r\u00fcnmezken geri kalan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck illerde AKP ve HDP\u2019de ku\u015fku do\u011furur nitelikte b\u00fcy\u00fck oynamalar oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. CHP\u2019nin basamaksal oranlar\u0131 ise, \u00f6teki partilere g\u00f6re t\u00fcm bu analizlerde en tutarl\u0131 neticeleri vermektedir.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61566\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-01t080325z_495810954_gf20000041450_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>KES\u0130N B\u0130R USULS\u00dcZL\u00dcK VAR DEN\u0130LEMEZ AMA\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcm bu analizler ve testler, sand\u0131kta kesinlikle bir usuls\u00fczl\u00fck ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kesin bir ispat\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lamaz. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131l\u0131rken Haziran se\u00e7imlerini \u201cusuls\u00fczl\u00fck ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015f se\u00e7im\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlama ihtiyac\u0131 duyuldu\u011funu da unutmamak gerekiyor. Fakat iki se\u00e7im kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AKP ile HDP aras\u0131nda oy hareketlerinin analizlerinde bir \u00e7e\u015fit m\u00fcdahele ve kurcalama ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair ku\u015fku duymak i\u00e7in bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131labilir.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-61567\" src=\"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-11-03t130202z_331304187_gf20000044094_rtrmadp_3_turkey-election-custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u201cAKP\u2019N\u0130N EROZYON ZAFER\u0130\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson\u2019un \u00e7ok detayl\u0131 incelemelerinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalesi \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle sona eriyor:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cPazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc (1 Kas\u0131m) AKP\u2019nin erozyon zaferi, t\u00fcm ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketlerinin \u2018sonu\u00e7lar Haziran\u2019\u0131n tekrar\u0131 olacak\u2019 sav\u0131nan aksine \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131. \u015eimdi herkes, ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketleri ve analistlerin nas\u0131l bu kadar yan\u0131labildi\u011fini merak ediyor. Peki ya hi\u00e7 yan\u0131lmad\u0131larsa?\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>ANKARA YEREL SE\u00c7\u0130MLER\u0130NDE H\u0130LE OLDU\u011eUNU ORTAYA KOYMU\u015eTU<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson 30 Mart yerel se\u00e7imlerinde, Ankara\u2019da hile yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Meyersson, CHP oylar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apta bir \u201ci\u015f\u201d gelmi\u015f oldu\u011fu sonucunu giderek daha y\u00fcksek g\u00fcvenilirlikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren sonu\u00e7lar yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sozcu.com.tr\/2015\/dunya\/1-kasim-2015-genel-secimlerinin-istatistiki-analizinde-manipulasyon-izleri-980730\/\" target=\"_blank\">Kaynak :\u00a0http:\/\/www.sozcu.com.tr\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcrkiye 1 Kas\u0131m genel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki yap\u0131lan kapsaml\u0131 bir istatistik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, se\u00e7imler \u00fczerinde manip\u00fclasyon yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stockholm School of Economist akademisyenlerinden Asistan Profes\u00f6r Erik Meyersson, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki 1 Kas\u0131m 2015 Genel Se\u00e7im Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018Hane Testleri ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Kas\u0131m Se\u00e7imlerindeki \u2018Garip\u2019 Se\u00e7im Dinamikleri\u2019 adl\u0131 makalesinde de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meyersson\u2019un Benford Yasas\u0131 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[1762,57,2529,2531,2530,1553,138,12,2532,2528],"class_list":["post-61555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","tag-1-kasim-secimleri","tag-akp","tag-asistan-profesor-erik-meyersson","tag-benford-yasasi","tag-garip-secim-dinamikleri","tag-hdp","tag-mhp","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-secim-hileleleri","tag-stockholm-school-of-economist","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61555\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}