{"id":60686,"date":"2015-10-12T19:50:59","date_gmt":"2015-10-12T16:50:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=60686"},"modified":"2015-10-12T22:19:14","modified_gmt":"2015-10-12T19:19:14","slug":"akp-tek-kalemde-yurttasi-10-bin-dolar-zenginlestirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=60686","title":{"rendered":"AKP tek kalemde yurtta\u015f\u0131 10 bin dolar zenginle\u015ftirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"8568\"<\/a>Dolardaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f milli geliri eritti. AKP \u00e7areyi hesaplamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmekte buldu. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelir 1741 dolar azalacakken, yeni y\u00f6ntemle 19 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nca haz\u0131rlanan ve Bakanlar Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) d\u00fcn Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131. AKP, ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc gidi\u015fat\u0131yla ilgili verilerle ilgili kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak bir hesaplama y\u00f6ntemine gitti. Daha \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019lerde dolar baz\u0131nda gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH belli bir kur oran\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplan\u0131rken, dolardaki u\u00e7u\u015f hesap de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi, hem milli gelir hem de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir hedefini \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u015fi\u015firdi.<\/p>\n

Hesap de\u011fi\u015fti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki OVP\u2019de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelir dolar baz\u0131nda 10 bin 936 dolarken, yeni hesaplama y\u00f6ntemiyle 19 bin 536 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Oysa kur fark\u0131 nedeniyle 1741 dolar fakirle\u015ftik.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2015- 2017 Orta Vadeli Plan\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH\u2019yi 2015 i\u00e7in 10 bin 936 dolar olarak hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hesaplamada kullan\u0131lan dolar kuru ise 2.2882 TL idi. Oysa dolar kurunun y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 2.7144 TL. Bu rakamla hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2015 i\u00e7in belirlenen 10 bin 936 dolarl\u0131k ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir hedefi de 9 bin 218 dolara geriliyordu. Yani sadece kur fark\u0131ndan ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelir 1718 dolar azal\u0131yordu. Bir yandan b\u00fcy\u00fcme azal\u0131rken di\u011fer yandan kur y\u00fckselince hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi de de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni OVP\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in GSYH tahmini, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yay\u0131mlanan OVP\u2019ye g\u00f6re TL baz\u0131nda 1 trilyon 945 milyar liradan 1 trilyon 928 milyar liraya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yani 17 milyar lira azald\u0131. Bu rakam 2.7144\u2019l\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama kurla hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 710 milyar dolara denk geliyor. N\u00fcfusun bir \u00f6nceki hesaplamada kullan\u0131lan 77 milyon 724 bin oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir dolar baz\u0131nda 9 bin 195 dolara geriliyor. \u00d6zetle ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonunda belirlenen 10 bin 936 dolarl\u0131k ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir hedefine g\u00f6re yurtta\u015f 1741 dolar fakirle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan yeni y\u00f6ntemle ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir tahmini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in 19 bin 506 dolar. Bu da ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki hesaplama y\u00f6ntemine g\u00f6re 10 bin 311 dolar daha fazla.<\/p>\n

GSYH ikiye katland\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde mevcut kurla 850 milyar dolardan 710 milyar dolara gerileyen 2015 GSYH hedefi de yeni y\u00f6ntemle 1 trilyon 516 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yani tek kalemde 806 milyar dolar art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet y\u00f6ntem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gerek\u00e7e olarak kurdaki dalgalanmalar\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yay\u0131mlanan 2015-2017 d\u00f6nemine ait OVP\u2019de bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in belirlenen \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin hi\u00e7 biri tutturulamad\u0131. Enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri y\u00fckselirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2015 i\u00e7in belirlenen y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131, yeni OVP\u2019de y\u00fczde 3\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 4\u2019e revize edilirken, s\u00f6z konusu rakam 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.5, 2018 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 5 olarak tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

OVP\u2019den ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/strong><\/p>\n

* T\u00fcketimde art\u0131\u015f beklentisi y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in beklenti y\u00fczde 4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.7\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n

* Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.2 art\u0131\u015f beklenen tahminler, y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. 2016 i\u00e7in bu rakam 8.9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019ye, 2017 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 9.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 7.5\u2019e indirildi. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 8.2\u2019lik sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yap\u0131ld\u0131.\"graf\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fsizlik artacak<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131na da yans\u0131yacak. Bu y\u0131l i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda da \u00f6nceki tahminlerde y\u00fczde 9.5 olan rakam y\u00fczde 10.5\u2019e y\u00fckseltilirken, 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 10.3\u2019e, 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9.1\u2019den 10.2\u2019ye art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. 2018 sonunda ise i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9.9 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon beklentisi de y\u00fckseltildi. \u00d6nceki OVP\u2019de bu y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6.3 olarak beklenen T\u00dc- FE y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019ya, 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019e, 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130thalatta 2015 i\u00e7in 258 milyar dolardan 208.4 milyar dolara, 2016 i\u00e7in 276.8 milyar dolardan 216.3 milyar dolara, 2017 i\u00e7in 297.5 milyar dolardan 239.6 milyara gerileme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Turizm gitti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Turizm gelirlerinin ad\u0131 da seyahat gelirleri olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki OVP\u2019de 2015 i\u00e7in 31.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k turizm geliri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, y\u0131l\u0131n bitmesine \u00fc\u00e7 ay kala seyahat gelirlerinde 26.8 milyar dolar tahmininde bulunuldu. Rakamlara g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l belirlenen 31.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k hedef gelecek iki y\u0131lda da tutturulamayacak. Seyahat gelirlerinin 2016 i\u00e7in 28.6 milyar dolar, 2017 i\u00e7in 30.6 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak : http:\/\/www.cumhuriyet.com.tr\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolardaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f milli geliri eritti. AKP \u00e7areyi hesaplamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmekte buldu. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelir 1741 dolar azalacakken, yeni y\u00f6ntemle 19 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nca haz\u0131rlanan ve Bakanlar Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) d\u00fcn Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131. AKP, ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc gidi\u015fat\u0131yla ilgili verilerle ilgili kafa <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,105],"tags":[57,2016,2014,2011,2015,2012,2013],"class_list":["post-60686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-gundem","tag-akp","tag-enflasyon-beklentisi","tag-gayrisafi-yurtici-hasila-gsyh","tag-kalkinma-bakanligi","tag-kisi-basina-gsyh","tag-orta-vadeli-program-ovp","tag-resmi-gazete","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60686\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}