{"id":26140,"date":"2010-10-05T07:54:33","date_gmt":"2010-10-05T04:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=26140"},"modified":"2010-10-05T07:54:33","modified_gmt":"2010-10-05T04:54:33","slug":"ana-fay-citirdadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=26140","title":{"rendered":"Ana fay \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdad\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. T\u00fcys\u00fcz, \u00f6nceki ak\u015fam Marmara Denizi\u2019nde meydana gelen depremin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ana fay \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, \u201cFay \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdad\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremin bu fayda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz ama zaman\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Yer bilimciler \u00f6nceki ak\u015fam Marmara Denizi\u2019nde Silivri ile Marmara Ere\u011flisi a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda meydana gelen 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ana fay \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. OKAN T\u00dcYS\u00dcZ:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130STANBUL TEKN\u0130K \u00dcN\u0130VERS\u0130TES\u0130 AVRASYA YER B\u0130L\u0130MLER\u0130 \u00d6\u011eRET\u0130M \u00dcYES\u0130
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uzun zamand\u0131r suskundu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu deprem k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ana fay \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftis Fay \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdad\u0131. Elinize ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bir tahtay\u0131 k\u0131rmak isterken bir k\u0131ym\u0131k \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdar ya, bu da \u00f6yle bir \u015fey. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremin bu fay \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz ama zaman\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz. Marmara Denizi i\u00e7indeki ana fay b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem beklentisinin k\u0131r\u0131lma yeri olarak tahmin edilen Orta Marmara \u00e7ukurlu\u011funda kilitli. Bu fay uzun zamand\u0131r suskun, hareket etmiyor. Biz buna kilitlenmi\u015f fay diyoruz. Kilitlenme oldu\u011fu zaman fay\u0131n iki taraf\u0131nda d\u00fczensizlikler var demektir. Fay\u0131n iki taraf\u0131 yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k bi\u00e7imde duruyor. \u00d6nceki ak\u015famki fay bu kilitlenmeyi a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir k\u0131p\u0131rdanma \u015feklinde yorumlanabilir. Bu bir \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdama. Tam k\u0131r\u0131lma her an olabilir. Zaman\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz. Bu depremin \u00f6nc\u00fc m\u00fc, art\u00e7\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011funu bilmemiz de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Depremin bu fay \u00fczerinde gelece\u011fini art\u0131k biliyoruz ama zaman\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz. \u00d6nceki ak\u015famki depremi k\u0131r\u0131lma olarak de\u011fil ancak \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdama olarak nitelendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. NAC\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dcR:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130T\u00dc MADEN FAK\u00dcLTES\u0130 JEOLOJ\u0130 B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc \u00d6\u011eRET\u0130M \u00dcYES\u0130
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beklenen yerde meydana geldi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Deprem ana fay \u00fczerinde meydana geldi. Deprem aktif fay dedi\u011fimiz Orta Marmara \u00e7ukurlu\u011fundaki ana fay \u00fczerinde olmu\u015ftur. Buras\u0131 bizim b\u00fcy\u00fck depremi bekledi\u011fimiz yer. Ancak bu deprem \u00fczerinde daha detayl\u0131 inceleme yapmam\u0131z gerekir.<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. DO\u011eAN KALAFAT:<\/strong><\/p>\n

KAND\u0130LL\u0130 RASATHANES\u0130 ULUSAL DEPREM \u0130ZLEME MERKEZ\u0130 M\u00dcD\u00dcR\u00dc
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Enerji bo\u015fal\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu fay hatt\u0131ndaki depremin olu\u015f d\u00fczeni \u00f6n \u015fok aktivitesi ile ba\u015flam\u0131yor. Ana \u015fok yani ortalama 7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir depremin ard\u0131ndan meydana gelen art\u00e7\u0131lar, bu fay\u0131n deprem olu\u015f d\u00fczenidir. 7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir depremin yan\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer olmayan bir enerji bo\u015fal\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. MUSTAFA ERD\u0130K:<\/strong><\/p>\n

BO\u011eAZ\u0130\u00c7\u0130 \u00dcN\u0130VERS\u0130TES\u0130 KAND\u0130LL\u0130 RASATHANES\u0130 VE DEPREM ARA\u015eTIRMA ENST\u0130T\u00dcS\u00dc M\u00dcD\u00dcR\u00dc<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u00fcrecin do\u011fal par\u00e7as\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremdeki gerilim beklentimiz 5-6 metrelik gerilim ise, bu depremde meydana gelen gerilim belki 1-2 milimetreliktir. Bu tip depremlerden belki y\u00fcz bin tane olmal\u0131 ki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin gerilimini bo\u015faltabilsin. \u015eu anki teknoloji ile \u00f6nceki ak\u015fam meydana gelen depremin \u00f6nc\u00fc m\u00fc, art\u00e7\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenemeyiz. Erken uyar\u0131 sisteminin ivme d\u00fczeyleri minimum y\u00fczde 5 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman, sonu\u00e7 veren bir sistemdir. Ya\u015fanan deprem bu seviyenin onda biri seviyesi kadard\u0131r. Biz kendi i\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc yapt\u0131k ancak bu depremin sinyalleri \u00f6nemli bir sinyal de\u011fildir. Son deprem Marmara\u2019daki fay\u0131n karakteristik depremlerinden. Bu karakteristik depremler 7 ve \u00fczerinde olabilir. Genellikle 4 ve 5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte depremler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun \u00fczerindekilere \u00e7ok az rastlan\u0131r. Bu do\u011fal bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir. Ya\u015fanan deprem ise bu s\u00fcrecin do\u011fal bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak bu az g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin 5 dakika sonra m\u0131 20 y\u0131l sonra m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemeyiz.<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. O\u011eUZ G\u00dcNDO\u011eDU:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130STANBUL \u00dcN\u0130VERS\u0130TES\u0130 M\u00dcHEND\u0130SL\u0130K FAK\u00dcLTES\u0130 JEOF\u0130Z\u0130K M\u00dcHEND\u0130SL\u0130\u011e\u0130 B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc \u00d6\u011eRET\u0130M \u00dcYES\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck depremin uyar\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marmara\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin beklendi\u011fi fay \u00fczerinde, 2009\u2019dan bu yana 4 \u015fiddetinin \u00fczerinde deprem olmamas\u0131 bir gecikme. Son bir ay i\u00e7erisinde depremin meydana geldi\u011fi nokta ve etraf\u0131nda 10\u2019a yak\u0131n deprem oldu. Bu ufak depremlerin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki ak\u015famki deprem meydana geldi. Bu depremin klasik anlamda bir \u00f6nc\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Biraz daha incelenmesi gereken bir deprem. \u015eu an i\u00e7in bir da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil bu y\u00fczden s\u00fcrpriz de de\u011fil. Bu depremin bir uyar\u0131 olarak kabul edilmesi gerekti\u011fini belirten G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, \u201cBeklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin bir uyar\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir. Hem niteli\u011fi hem de sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bizleri haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor. Depremden sonra 20 dakika ileti\u015fim sistemleri kesildi. Bundan ders \u00e7\u0131karmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. HALUK?EY\u0130DO\u011eAN:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130T\u00dc MADEN FAK\u00dcLTES\u0130 JEOF\u0130Z\u0130K M\u00dcHEND\u0130SL\u0130\u011e\u0130 B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc YER F\u0130Z\u0130\u011e\u0130 ANAB\u0130L\u0130M DALI BA\u015eKANI<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Normal\u2019 fay olabilir<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul\u2019da meydana gelen son deprem Marmara Denizi\u2019nde her zaman olan depremlerden biri. Deprem ana faya yak\u0131n normal faylar \u00fczerinde de olmu\u015f olabilir. Burada meydana gelen depremlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 normal fay \u00fczerinde meydana geliyor. Mekanizmay\u0131 anlamam\u0131z laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n

\u20184.5\u2019ten b\u00fcy\u00fck olanlar\u0131 3-5 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce s\u00f6yleyece\u011fiz\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dclkeler Deprem Kestirme A\u011f\u0131 (GNFE) T\u00fcrkiye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan, \u00f6l\u00e7erek 4.5\u2019ten b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerin 3 ila 5 g\u00fcn \u00f6nceden gelece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebileceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ercan, y\u0131llard\u0131r depremlerin \u00f6nceden bilinmesi \u00fczerine t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde jeofizik m\u00fchendislerince yo\u011fun olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sonuca da \u00e7ok yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, \u015fu bilgileri verdi:<\/p>\n

\u201cSon yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara g\u00f6re, depremden 3 ila 5 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce depremin patlayaca\u011f\u0131 ocakta, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir gerginlik birikmesi sonucu, \u2019gerginlik dalgalar\u0131 ya da gravitational waves\u2019 diye an\u0131lan, deprem \u00f6l\u00e7erlerin duyamad\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck dalga boylu, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck genlikli dalgalar\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu ilk kez belirledik.<\/p>\n

\u0130ki \u00fclkede var<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu dalgalar\u0131 deprem olmadan 3 ile 5 g\u00fcn \u00f6nceden \u00f6l\u00e7erek, 4.5\u2019tan b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin geliyor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilece\u011fiz. \u2018Atropatena\u2019 diye an\u0131lan deprem kestirme d\u00fczene\u011fini depremlerin s\u0131kl\u0131kla hareketlilik g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi Endonezya ile Pakistan\u2019a yerle\u015ftirdik. Deneme \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinde y\u00fczde 95 ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015ft\u0131k. Ayg\u0131t\u0131n \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in olan\u0131n\u0131 bu ay i\u00e7inde \u0130stanbul\u2019daki laboratuvar\u0131m\u0131zda \u00fcretmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Ayg\u0131tlardan birini \u0130stanbul, di\u011ferlerini Trabzon, Antalya ve Mardin\u2019e koymay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n

PROF. DR. EY\u0130DO\u011eAN\u2019DAN \u00c7ARPICI \u0130STANBUL RAKAMLARI:<\/strong><\/p>\n

100 konuttan 89\u2019u deprem b\u00f6lgesinde
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Haluk Eyido\u011fan, yeni \u00e7\u0131kan \u201c50 soruda Deprem\u201d isimli kitab\u0131nda, deprem hakk\u0131nda merak edilen 50 sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Eyido\u011fan\u2019\u0131n kitab\u0131nda \u0130stanbul ile ilgili \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 rakamlar \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n

– \u0130stanbul\u2019un y\u00fczde 16\u2019s\u0131 birinci, y\u00fczde 42\u2019si, ikinci, y\u00fczde 30\u2019u \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve y\u00fczde 12\u2019si d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc derecede deprem tehlike b\u00f6lgesinden olu\u015fmakta. Toplam konut alan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 89\u2019u 1 ve 2. derece deprem b\u00f6lgesinde. Bu konut alanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 13\u2019\u00fc deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda k\u00f6t\u00fc davranan al\u00fcvyon ve dolgu zeminler \u00fczerinde. \u0130stanbul\u2019daki otellerin y\u00fczde 78\u2019i 1. derece, y\u00fczde 21\u2019i ise 2. derece deprem b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n

– \u0130stanbul\u2019da heyelan, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma ve tsunami i\u00e7in belirtilen alanlarda ortalama konut say\u0131 ve y\u00fczdesi \u015f\u00f6yle: Heyelan; 24 bin 900 yap\u0131 (y\u00fczde 97\u2019si konut), S\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma; 19 bin yap\u0131 (y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 konut), Tsunami; 20 bin 800 yap\u0131 (y\u00fczde 85\u2019i konut), Su bask\u0131n\u0131na maruz dere yataklar\u0131\/vadi tabanlar\u0131; 108 bin 600 yap\u0131 (y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 konut)<\/p>\n

– K\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridinde tsunami ve heyelan tehdidi alt\u0131nda \u00f6zel koruma\/kurtarma planlar\u0131 gerektiren 266 tarihi yap\u0131 bulunmakta.<\/p>\n

Beklenen kay\u0131plar <\/strong><\/p>\n

– 7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir depremde beklenen kay\u0131plar \u015f\u00f6yle: 50 bin bina a\u011f\u0131r, 115 bin bina a\u011f\u0131r-orta, 250 bin bina a\u011f\u0131r-orta-hafif hasarl\u0131 alacak. 5-6 bin bina t\u00fcm\u00fcyle \u00e7\u00f6kecek. 70-75 bin ki\u015fi \u00f6lecek. 120 bin ki\u015fi yaralanacak.<\/p>\n

Kaynak : Milliyet<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n

Prof. Dr. T\u00fcys\u00fcz, \u00f6nceki ak\u015fam Marmara Denizi\u2019nde meydana gelen depremin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ana fay \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, \u201cFay \u00e7\u0131t\u0131rdad\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremin bu fayda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz ama zaman\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26140\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}