{"id":26088,"date":"2010-10-04T15:14:27","date_gmt":"2010-10-04T12:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=26088"},"modified":"2010-10-04T15:14:27","modified_gmt":"2010-10-04T12:14:27","slug":"istanbul-yeni-bir-deprem-mevsimine-girdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=26088","title":{"rendered":"\u0130stanbul yeni bir deprem mevsimine girdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cKaya\u00e7 Gerginlik \u0130zleme Y\u00f6ntemiyle Deprem Tahmini Projesi\u201d kapsam\u0131nda Marmara B\u00f6lgesi’nde kurulan istasyonlardan elde edilen verilere g\u00f6re, Marmara Denizi’ndeki deprem s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011finin tahmin edildi\u011fi bildirildi. <\/p>\n

BURSA – \u0130stanbul Teknik \u00dcniversitesi (\u0130T\u00dc) Elektrik-Elektronik Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Yrd. Do\u00e7. Dr. Berk \u00dcst\u00fcnda\u011f, \u201cKaya\u00e7 Gerginlik \u0130zleme Y\u00f6ntemiyle Deprem Tahmini Projesi\u201d kapsam\u0131nda Marmara B\u00f6lgesi’nde istasyonlar kurduklar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu istasyonlardan s\u00fcrekli veri ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm verilerinin belirli zaman pencerelerinde s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 5’in \u00fczerindeki depremlerin 12-48 saat ve daha \u00f6nceki zaman diliminde tahmini i\u00e7in ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulayan \u00dcst\u00fcnda\u011f, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de g\u00fcnler \u00f6ncesindeki verilerin analizine dayand\u0131r\u0131larak depremlerle ili\u015fkilendirilmesi konusunda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 say\u0131labilecek tahmin \u00f6rneklerinin bulundu\u011funu anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Marmara’da \u0130stanbul’a g\u00f6re, yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak g\u00fcneyden bat\u0131ya do\u011fru olan k\u0131s\u0131mda 15 g\u00fcn \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve haftal\u0131k istatistiki deprem karakterinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenebilecek bir d\u00f6neme girilece\u011finin muhtemel i\u015faret\u00e7isi baz\u0131 veriler ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren \u00dcst\u00fcnda\u011f, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

\u201cMarmara’da g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir depremsellik var. Belirli e\u015fi\u011fe kadar insanlar taraf\u0131ndan hissedilmiyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck olan depremselli\u011fe haftal\u0131k bak\u0131l\u0131rsa artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz bir d\u00f6nemdi. Sonu\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve alanda \u00f6ncesindekine g\u00f6re en az 1,5 katl\u0131k say\u0131sal bir art\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu silsilenin 30 Eyl\u00fcle kadar son bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorduk ancak birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir sarkma ya\u015fand\u0131. 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem de bu kapsamda de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu y\u00fczden beklenmedik bir etkinlik de\u011fil. Haftal\u0131k ortalamaya g\u00f6re, etkinli\u011fi istatistik a\u00e7\u0131dan biraz y\u00fcksek seyri umulandan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fc.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00dcst\u00fcnda\u011f, bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu belirterek, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\u201c4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depreme dayanarak hemen k\u0131sa vadeli bir art\u00e7\u0131-\u00f6nc\u00fc ili\u015fkisinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyim. Yer bilimleri konusundaki uzmanlar\u0131n ortak beklentisi olan Marmara Denizi’ndeki hasar verici seviyedeki muhtemel bir depremin kestiriminde tek ba\u015f\u0131na 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir deprem zamanlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir i\u015faret\u00e7i de\u011fildir. Ancak d\u00f6nemsel art\u0131\u015f ve yersel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde tutuldu\u011funda tetikleyici ya da h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali \u00fczerinde durmak gerekir. Biz kendi ara\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131zda bu t\u00fcr de\u011ferlendirmeleri elektriksel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm verilerimizle sismik hareket s\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n zamana g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fimlerini beraber inceleyerek yap\u0131yoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir g\u00fcnde 4.4 civar\u0131nda ya da daha \u00fczerinde ba\u015fka bir deprem olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcnde tutulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Hen\u00fcz kendi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerimizde Marmara’da hasar verici bir depremle ili\u015fkilendirebilece\u011fi tahminini ortaya koyabilecek k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir i\u015faret\u00e7i almad\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Bence Marmara’da daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem riski konusunda son olan deprem bug\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fcnden farkl\u0131 yapm\u0131yor. Bu zamana kadarki g\u00f6zlemlerimizde, varsa da 9-11 g\u00fcn civar\u0131 sonras\u0131ndaki 1-3 g\u00fcnl\u00fck zaman penceresinde bu t\u00fcr beklentileri do\u011frulay\u0131c\u0131 veriler al\u0131nabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda buna g\u00f6re ayr\u0131ca de\u011ferlendirmelerimizi yapaca\u011f\u0131z.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kaynak : Radikal<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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\u201cKaya\u00e7 Gerginlik \u0130zleme Y\u00f6ntemiyle Deprem Tahmini Projesi\u201d kapsam\u0131nda Marmara B\u00f6lgesi’nde kurulan istasyonlardan elde edilen verilere g\u00f6re, Marmara Denizi’ndeki deprem s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011finin tahmin edildi\u011fi bildirildi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26088\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}