{"id":13842,"date":"2009-08-23T11:04:52","date_gmt":"2009-08-23T09:04:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=13842"},"modified":"2009-08-23T11:04:52","modified_gmt":"2009-08-23T09:04:52","slug":"kurt-acilimi-sandiga-nasil-yansir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/?p=13842","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sand\u0131\u011fa nas\u0131l yans\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

AK Parti’nin ya bataca\u011f\u0131 ya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcreci ‘bilen adam’ de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

29 Mart yerel se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde, sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kacak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011fru tahmin eden A&G Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi’nin sahibi Adli G\u00fcr, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ‘K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ s\u00fcrecinin sand\u0131\u011fa nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Ak\u015fam gazetesine konu\u015fan G\u00fcr’e g\u00f6re, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ad\u0131 ‘Demokratikle\u015fme ve \u0130nsan Haklar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ olmal\u0131yd\u0131. S\u00fcre\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131. Adil G\u00fcr, bu s\u00fcrecin en karl\u0131 partisi olarak DTP’yi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u015eehit yak\u0131nlar\u0131 rencide olduklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrse AK Parti’nin ciddi yara alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130\u015fte G\u00fcr’\u00fcn yorum ve tahminleri: <\/p>\n

A\u00c7ILIMA HALK DESTE\u011e\u0130 Y\u00dcZDE 70’DEN 50’LERE \u0130ND\u0130 <\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendiriyorsunuz?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ad\u0131 asl\u0131nda ‘K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ de\u011fil ‘Demokratikle\u015fme ve \u0130nsan Haklar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ olmal\u0131yd\u0131. Say\u0131n \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, uzun zamand\u0131r ad\u0131 ister G\u00fcneydo\u011fu, ister K\u00fcrt sorunu olsun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmden yana olanlarla de\u011fil, kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131, belki bug\u00fcn daha farkl\u0131 bir noktada olunabilirdi.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na, kamuoyunun deste\u011fi y\u00fczde ka\u00e7?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mdan \u00f6nce destek y\u00fczde 70’di. Tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flay\u0131nca bu rakam y\u00fczde 50’lilere d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eu an T\u00fcrkiye’nin bence yar\u0131s\u0131 destekliyor ve yar\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrece kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Zamanlamay\u0131 nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yorsunuz?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ke\u015fke demokratikle\u015fme ve insan haklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, ter\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2002- 2005 aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lsayd\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc AK Parti o d\u00f6nemde de iktidardayd\u0131. O zaman yap\u0131lsayd\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmet bu d\u00f6nemdeki yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fmalara maruz kalmazd\u0131. Belki \u015fu s\u00f6ylenebilirdi: O tarihte K\u00fcrtlerin temsilcileri yani DTP temsilcileri Meclis’te yoktu.<\/p>\n

AK PART\u0130 TABANI A\u00c7ILIM S\u00dcREC\u0130NE NASIL BAKIYOR? <\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 AK Parti taban\u0131nda nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu konu hakk\u0131nda hi\u00e7 kimsenin fikri yok. O nedenle paketin i\u00e7inde neler var, bunlar kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131p tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapaca\u011f\u0131z. Ama a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fu idi. T\u00fcrkiye’nin y\u00fczde 70’inden fazlas\u0131, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’daki ter\u00f6r sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in silahl\u0131 m\u00fccadele d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, devletin yeni ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Burada AK Parti, CHP, MHP se\u00e7meni aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck farkl\u0131l\u0131klar yok. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck taraftar\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen AK Parti se\u00e7meninin y\u00fczde 68’i, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’daki ter\u00f6r sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yeni ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu oran CHP ve MHP se\u00e7meninde y\u00fczde 70’den fazla idi. Yani bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmalardan daha farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde, siyasi partilerin se\u00e7menlerinde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck farkl\u0131l\u0131klar yok. \u015eu noktada ‘filanca partinin se\u00e7meni ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordur’u do\u011fru \u00f6l\u00e7mek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n neleri kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz. Kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131p tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra \u00f6l\u00e7ebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer parti tabanlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 nas\u0131l?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sadece AK Parti taban\u0131 de\u011fil T\u00fcrkiye’deki t\u00fcm se\u00e7menler, (DTP se\u00e7meni belki daha y\u00fcksek, y\u00fczde 90’lardan fazla oranda) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m konusunda istekli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. DTP d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki partilerin se\u00e7menleri de bu tart\u0131\u015fmalardan \u00f6nce kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fildi. Dedi\u011fim asl\u0131nda \u015fu: ‘A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m, s\u00fcrecin i\u015fleyi\u015fi, ad\u0131n\u0131n konmas\u0131 ve metot dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile yanl\u0131\u015f olmu\u015ftur. Eminim ki bug\u00fcn bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131lsa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131ma, tart\u0131\u015fmalardan \u00f6nceki ara\u015ft\u0131rmada elde etti\u011fimiz bulgulardan daha az oranda destek \u00e7\u0131kar. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 liderleri toplayarak \u00f6nce siyasi partiler aras\u0131nda hatta TBMM’de mutabakat aramal\u0131 ve bu konu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131. Daha sonra sivil toplum liderleriyle, gazetecilerle, sanat \u00f6nderleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmeliydi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, CHP ve MHP daha i\u00e7eri\u011fini dahi bilmedi\u011fi bir konuda kar\u015f\u0131 fikirlerini beyan etmi\u015ftir, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede dahi bulunmam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. AK Parti temsilcilerine randevu dahi vermemektedir.<\/p>\n

OBJEKT\u0130F TARTI\u015eMA \u0130MKANI OLMADI, KAFALAR KARI\u015eTI<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir de s\u00fcre\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015f bir noktadan ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tart\u0131\u015fmadan dolay\u0131 kamuoyunun kafas\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nedeni yine siyaset\u00e7iler. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye’deki ayd\u0131nlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir kesimi ve iktidar, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nemsiyor. Ana Muhalefet ve di\u011fer muhalefet partisi \u015fiddetle kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece T\u00fcrkiye’de objektif bir tart\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131 ortadan kaybolmu\u015ftur. \u0130nsanlar art\u0131k bu s\u00fcrece, siyasi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini hep akl\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u00f6\u015fesinde sakl\u0131 tutarak cevap verecektir. Yani, AK Parti’ye yak\u0131n olanlar \u00f6nemli oranda destek verecektir. CHP veya MHP se\u00e7meni, belki b\u00f6yle bir tasar\u0131ya daha y\u00fcksek oranda olumlu bakacak iken art\u0131k \u015fiddetle kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

DTP’nin temsil g\u00fcc\u00fc bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te kabul edildi <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

DTP’nin durumu ne olur? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

DTP’nin bu s\u00fcrecin en karl\u0131 partisi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yak\u0131n zamana kadar DTP’yi K\u00fcrtlerin ger\u00e7ek temsilcisi kabul etmeyip, PKK’n\u0131n Meclis’teki uzant\u0131s\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen \u00e7evreler bile bug\u00fcn, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’daki K\u00fcrt oylar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n resmi temsilcisi oldu\u011funu kabullenmi\u015flerdir. Bu, DTP i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131d\u0131r. Toplu manada ben bu s\u00fcrecin en karl\u0131 partisinin DTP oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Sonunda, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’da bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olsa bile AK Parti oylar\u0131kadar DTP oylar\u0131 da olumlu bir \u015fekilde etkilenecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc DTP’nin Meclis’e girdi\u011fi g\u00fcnden bu yana s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc politikalar\u0131n kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sonucu olarak alg\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’da AK Parti oylar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyecek? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu, o b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan K\u00fcrt k\u00f6kenli vatanda\u015flar\u0131n ister istemez ho\u015funa gidecektir. G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’da AK Parti oylar\u0131 bundan olumlu etkilenecektir. \u015eu \u00f6nemli AK Parti, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’daki oyunu artt\u0131r\u0131rken Kayseri’deki, Yozgat’taki oyunu muhafaza ediyorsa sorun yok. G\u00fcneydo\u011fu’da oyunu art\u0131r\u0131rken milliyet\u00e7i oylar\u0131n\u0131 kaybederse, pirince giderken evdeki bulgurdan olmak durumu riski var.<\/p>\n

AK PART\u0130 OYUNU ARTIRIR MI? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn bir genel se\u00e7im olsa AK Parti oyunu art\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan sonra oyunu art\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr m\u00fc? Bunu konu\u015fmak \u00e7ok daha do\u011fru olur. Bug\u00fcn se\u00e7im olsa AK Parti’nin oyunu \u00f6nemli oranda etkileyecek bir konu de\u011fildir bu. Neden? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcn sadece lafta K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6te bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ne olur? AK Parti’nin oylar\u0131 artar m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer mi?<\/p>\n

Bu konunun \u00e7ok ince bir \u00e7izgi \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hani eskilerin tabiri ile, ‘a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 t\u00fck\u00fcrsen sakal yukar\u0131 t\u00fck\u00fcrsen b\u0131y\u0131k’ hesab\u0131. O ince \u00e7izginin yakalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yani bu a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n sonunda, ya T\u00fcrkler ya da K\u00fcrtler memnun olmayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir baba, miras\u0131n\u0131 2 ya da 3 \u00f6z evlad\u0131na taksim ederken bile mutlaka ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olur. Hi\u00e7 e\u015fit, taksim yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen olmaz. O nedenle (Cumhuriyet tarihi boyunca se\u00e7men tercihini belirleyen en \u00f6nemli \u015feyin ekonomi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm i\u00e7in) K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sonunda T\u00fcrkiye ter\u00f6r belas\u0131ndan kurtulursa bunun tabiiki AK Parti’ye birka\u00e7 puanl\u0131k yans\u0131mas\u0131 olur. Ama oylar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 50’lere 60’lara ta\u015f\u0131maz.<\/p>\n

SE\u00c7MEN\u0130N \u00d6NCEL\u0130\u011e\u0130 A\u015e VE \u0130\u015e <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye’nin en \u00f6nemli meselesi K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 veya ter\u00f6r de\u011fildir. Elbette ki en \u00f6nemli meseleleri aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ama se\u00e7menin birinci \u00f6nceli\u011fi a\u015f ve i\u015ftir. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fe ve yoksullu\u011fa \u00e7are olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonomide \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme olmazsa, K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fsa bile AK Parti oylar\u0131na etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olur. Ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli d\u00fczelmeler olursa da AK Parti oylar\u0131 bundan \u00e7ok fazla etkilenir.<\/p>\n

M\u0130LL\u0130YET\u00c7\u0130 OYLAR \u0130\u00c7\u0130N KR\u0130T\u0130K V\u0130RAJ <\/strong><\/p>\n

AK Parti i\u00e7erisinde milliyet\u00e7i oylar nas\u0131l etkilenir? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Son g\u00fcnlerde kamuoyunda tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bu a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n \u0130mral\u0131 muhatap al\u0131narak yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 olursa; Edirne, Tekirda\u011f, Yozgat, Kayseri’de ya\u015fayan, ailesinde, k\u00f6y\u00fcnde, mahallesinde \u015fehit cenazesine kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f insanlar az da olsa rencide oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ise AK Parti \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yara al\u0131r. Yani son yerel se\u00e7imlerde AK Parti, kamuoyunda s\u00f6ylenenin aksine T\u00fcrkiye’nin sahillerinde oy kaybetmedi. AK Parti Erzurum, Kayseri, Konya, Yozgat’ta oy kaybetti. Yani AK Parti’nin \u0130zmir, Edirne, Ayd\u0131n, Mu\u011fla hatta se\u00e7imi kaybetti\u011fi Antalya’da oyu azalmad\u0131. AK Parti, Kayseri, Erzurum’da y\u00fczde 20 oy kaybetti. Kayseri’de y\u00fczde 18, Konya’da y\u00fczde 13 oy kaybetti. Yani \u00f6zetle AK Parti, milliyet\u00e7i muhafazakar se\u00e7menini kaybetti. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, alg\u0131lar iyi y\u00f6netilemezse AK Parti’nin bu \u00f6zellikle milliyet\u00e7i se\u00e7mendeki oy kayb\u0131 h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n

Kaynak : Vatan<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

AK Parti’nin ya bataca\u011f\u0131 ya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcreci ‘bilen adam’ de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

29 Mart yerel se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde, sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kacak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011fru tahmin eden A&G Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi’nin sahibi Adli G\u00fcr, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ‘K\u00fcrt a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ s\u00fcrecinin sand\u0131\u011fa nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Ak\u015fam gazetesine konu\u015fan G\u00fcr’e g\u00f6re, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ad\u0131 ‘Demokratikle\u015fme ve \u0130nsan Haklar\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131’ <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gundem","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}