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T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi sava\u015ftan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llarda bile y\u00fczde 13,8 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmemi\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme bitti ve ekonomi resmen durgunlu\u011fa girdi. \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f IMF lobisini sevindirdi<\/p>\n
1929 KR\u0130Z\u0130NDE G\u00d6R\u00dcLMED\u0130 <\/strong> YATIRIMLARDA KESK\u0130N D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e <\/strong> SEDAT DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin faturas\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 yine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar \u00f6d\u00fcyor \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131na d\u00f6nen T\u00fcrkiye, tarihinin en y\u00fcksek ikinci daralmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, \u00fclke ekonomisi y\u00fczde 13.8 darald\u0131 \u00dcRET\u0130C\u0130 K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLD\u00dc, RANT\u0130YEC\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcD\u00dc<\/strong> T\u0130CARETTE TAR\u0130H\u0130 K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLME<\/strong> DEVLET\u0130N HARCAMALARI ARTTI<\/strong> T\u00dcRK\u0130YE TEKN\u0130K OLARAK RESESYONDA<\/strong> DOLAR BAZINDA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLME Y\u00dcZDE 29<\/strong> PROF. DR. KORKUT BORATAV: PROF. DR. HAYR\u0130 KOZANO\u011eLU: Kaynak : BirG\u00fcn<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi sava\u015ftan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llarda bile y\u00fczde 13,8 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmemi\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme bitti ve ekonomi resmen durgunlu\u011fa girdi. \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f IMF lobisini sevindirdi<\/p>\n 1929 KR\u0130Z\u0130NDE G\u00d6R\u00dcLMED\u0130 Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 ve 1929 d\u00fcnya ekonomik krizini atlatan gen\u00e7 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin bile g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, mevcut krizde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 1945\u2019teki 15.3\u2019l\u00fck k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeden sonraki <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ekonomi","odd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.korhanyilmaz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nBirinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 ve 1929 d\u00fcnya ekonomik krizini atlatan gen\u00e7 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin bile g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, mevcut krizde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 1945\u2019teki 15.3\u2019l\u00fck k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeden sonraki en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyi ya\u015fad\u0131. 2009 ilk \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 13.8 olurken, bu orana yak\u0131n en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 13 ile 1927 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 1939-1945 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan ekonomik anlamda \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r etkilenen T\u00fcrkiye, 1945 y\u0131l\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. <\/p>\n
\nKrizin daralma \u00fczerindeki en a\u011f\u0131r etkilerinden biri yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda durdu. Toplam yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda y\u00fczde 29.7\u2019lik daralma ya\u015fan\u0131rken \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 35.8\u2019le keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n krizin \u2018te\u011fet ge\u00e7ti\u011fi\u2019ne inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ancak bu rakam daha sonra y\u00fczde 3.6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olarak revize edilmi\u015fti. Bunun da \u015fimdi yeniden revize edilmesi bekleniyor. \u00bb\n<\/p>\n
\n\u00bbD\u0130SK ara\u015ft\u0131rma b\u00fcrosundan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cMilli Gelir’deki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fc, hangi kesimler \u00fcstleniyor\u201d diye soruldu. D\u0130SK a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda \u015f\u00f6yle denildi: Ger\u00e7ek i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 milyon 500 bine ula\u015ft\u0131. E\u011fitim, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve sosyal g\u00fcvenlik gibi \u2018sosyal \u00f6demeler\u2019 azald\u0131. \u00dccretlerin b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmdeki pay\u0131, 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 30 iken bug\u00fcn y\u00fczde 22 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u201d
\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme balonu s\u00f6nd\u00fc resmen resesyon d\u00f6nemi
\n\u00bbT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 6.2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece iki d\u00f6nem \u00fcst \u00fcste k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fayan ekonomi, teknik olarak resesyona (durgunluk) girmi\u015f oldu. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme 2001 y\u0131l\u0131 krizinden de b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu. Ekonomideki tarihi daralma h\u00fck\u00fcmetin IMF ile anla\u015fma yapmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen taraflarca \u2018IMF g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak bir durum olarak yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ilk \u00e7eyrekteki durumunu a\u00e7\u0131klayan GSYH\u2019daki 13.8\u2019lik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme oran\u0131, 1945 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fczde 15.3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeden sonra T\u00fcrkiye tarihinin en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme oran\u0131 oldu. T\u00dc\u0130K \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda yeni seri \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na g\u00f6re en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakamlar 2001 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 9.8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda ekonomide y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bu rakam daha sonra y\u00fczde 3,6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olarak revize edilmi\u015fti. Piyasalarda beklenti 11.8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi fakat a\u00e7\u0131klanan tarihi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme planlar\u0131 alt \u00fcst etti.<\/p>\n
\nT\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re, GSYH birinci \u00e7eyrekte cari fiyatlarla 210.997 milyar lira veya 127.812 milyar dolar oldu. T\u00dc\u0130K \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme ait verilerde revizyon yapmad\u0131. Toptan ve perakende ticaret y\u00fczde 25.4, imalat sanayii y\u00fczde 18.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130n\u015faat y\u00fczde 18.9, tar\u0131m y\u00fczde 3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fad\u0131. Sekt\u00f6rler GSYH\u2019si toplamda y\u00fczde 11.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00dcretim yapanlar \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken, mali arac\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n faaliyetlerinde y\u00fczde 10.8, dolayl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen mali arac\u0131l\u0131k hizmetlerinde y\u00fczde 10.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.
\n\u00dcretim y\u00f6ntemi ile hesaplanan gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la tahmininde ise, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re cari fiyatlarla gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la y\u00fczde 2.2’lik azal\u0131\u015fla 210 997 milyon TL oldu.
\nB\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc fakt\u00f6r ise, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte oldu\u011fu gibi, stoklardaki rekor art\u0131\u015flar. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4,0 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 7,1 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek, \u00e7eyreksel GSYH\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 1987\u2019den itibaren en y\u00fcksek stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti… Harcamalar y\u00f6ntemiyle hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki daralmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yan unsular; kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6 artmas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f talebin katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7 ile 2001 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015fmas\u0131…<\/p>\n
\n2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re sabit fiyatlarla gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la y\u00fczde 13.8’lik azal\u0131\u015fla 21 145 milyon TL oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7inde, 2006\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden beri artan kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 25 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede artmaya devam ederken, \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar y\u00fczde 35,8 oran\u0131nda geriledi. Sekt\u00f6rel bazda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011fn\u0131da Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 3, imalat sanayi y\u00fczde 18.5 daral\u0131rken, in\u015faatta daralma y\u00fczde 18.9 daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte ticaretteki y\u00fczde 22,9\u2019luk, vergilerdeki y\u00fczde 21,2\u2019lik, sanayi ve haberle\u015fmedeki y\u00fczde 17,6\u2019\u015farl\u0131k daralma rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\nHarcamalar y\u00f6ntemiyle GSYH’de, devletin bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7eyre\u011findeki t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re artt\u0131. Sabit fiyatlarla ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9 olan GSYH’da devletin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 11,1’e y\u00fckseldi.
\nDevlet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ilk \u00e7eyrekte sabit fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 5 iken bu y\u0131l ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5,7 oldu. Maa\u015f ve \u00fccretlerin GSYH’daki pay\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5,2’den bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6’ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Maa\u015f ve \u00fccretlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ge\u00e7en\u00a0 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019ken, bu y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 0,9’a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 6.2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece iki d\u00f6nem \u00fcst\u00fcste k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fayan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, Avrupa\u2019da kabul edildi\u011fi bi\u00e7imiyle teknik olarak resesyona girmi\u015f oldu. Ekonomi 2001 krizinin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 5.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra 2008 son \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar kesintisiz olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etmi\u015fti. 2008 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 7.3, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2.8, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 1.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomi, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmede gerileme trendinin ard\u0131ndan son \u00e7eyre\u011fi y\u00fczde 6.2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ile kapatm\u0131\u015f, 2008\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme de y\u00fczde 1.1\u2019de kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n2009 ilk \u00e7eyrekte ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine sabit fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 13.8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen GSYH 24 milyar 518 milyon TL\u2019den 21 milyar 145 milyon TL\u2019ye indi. Cari fiyatlarla GSYH y\u00fczde 2.2 azalarak 215 milyar 846 milyon TL\u2019den 210 milyar 997 milyon TL\u2019ye geriledi. Dolar baz\u0131nda cari fiyatlarla GSYH y\u00fczde 29 azalarak 180 milyar 19 milyon dolardan 127 milyar 812 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\nKrizin etkisi<\/strong>
\nEKONOM\u0130ST Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav\u2019a g\u00f6re, kriz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi esas olarak sermaye hareketleri \u00fczerinden vurdu. D\u0131\u015f kaynak hareketlerine son derece ba\u011fl\u0131 olan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi krizden d\u00fcnyadaki emsallerinden daha \u00e7ok etkilenmi\u015ftir. Boratav d\u0131s kaynak hareketlerinin her t\u00fcrl\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki bu daralman\u0131n sebebi esas olarak ya\u015fanan k\u00fcresel mali krizdir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc say\u0131sal verilere bak\u0131l\u0131nca son alt\u0131 aydaki d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi s\u0131f\u0131ra inmi\u015ftir dedi. Di\u011fer taraftan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlere ili\u015fkin ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmedeki ivmenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini ama petrol ihra\u00e7 etmeyen \u00fclkeleri hesaba katmazsak T\u00fcrkiye nin yasayaca\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ivmesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f emsallerine g\u00f6re daha az olacakt\u0131r dedi.<\/p>\n
\nRefah kayb\u0131<\/strong>
\n\u0130KT\u0130SAT\u00c7I Prof. Dr Hayri Kozano\u011flu, TU\u0130Kin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakamlar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ait oldu\u011fu hesaba kat\u0131l\u0131nca y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir daralma olmayabilece\u011fini kaydetti. \u00d6te yandan cumhuriyet tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci daralmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nca\u00a0 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re\u00a0 ki\u015fisel refah daha da d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr dedi. Kozano\u011flu \u00f6te yandan\u00a0 rakamlara g\u00f6re finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ise;\u00a0 bu durum \u00fcreticilerin\u00a0 daha fazla refah kaybetmesi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini, ve di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin daha da darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini kaydetti.\n<\/p>\n